NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
128–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAL3527203115128
PHX303723239122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (PHX) / 4 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalton Knecht 32 35 7 1
Anthony Davis S 34 35 10 4
Austin Reaves S 22 18 8 2
D'Angelo Russell S 31 9 1 10
Gabe Vincent 18 7 1 1
Max Christie S 21 7 4 1
Bronny James 17 4 2 0
Cam Reddish S 30 4 5 0
Jaxson Hayes 23 4 9 2
Jalen Hood-Schifino 22 3 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 28 22 3 2
Kevin Durant S 31 19 8 8
Jusuf Nurkic S 17 15 7 0
Bradley Beal S 30 13 4 4
Tyus Jones S 25 11 0 5
Royce O'Neale 19 7 8 4
Oso Ighodaro 24 6 2 1
Bol Bol 9 6 2 1
Collin Gillespie 9 5 0 3
Monte Morris 16 5 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 24-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
7%
8 LeBron James LAL
7%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Monte Morris PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
38%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 18.9 10.3 2.4
2 Kevin Durant PHX 15.1 3.9 2.1
3 Dalton Knecht LAL 14.4 4.2 2.8
4 Austin Reaves LAL 13.1 4.5 5.0
5 LeBron James LAL 13.0 4.8 3.7
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.9 7.0 1.7
7 Bradley Beal PHX 11.9 3.2 1.8
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.1 3.2 3.7
9 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.7 4.1 1.6
10 Tyus Jones PHX 9.0 2.0 5.0
11 Max Christie LAL 8.8 3.6 1.4
12 Collin Gillespie PHX 8.7 2.1 3.3
13 Monte Morris PHX 8.3 2.6 4.3
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.9 3.5 1.7
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.3 4.9 3.0
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 5.4 1.5
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 6.1 3.0 2.7
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.7 1.3 1.1
19 Bol Bol PHX 5.5 5.0 1.3
20 Josh Okogie PHX 5.4 2.1 1.2
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.8 4.0 1.7
22 Maxwell Lewis LAL 4.2 1.8 0.9
23 Frank Kaminsky PHX 4.0 2.5 0.6
24 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.9 1.3 0.8
25 Damion Lee PHX 3.6 0.9 0.7
26 Cam Reddish LAL 3.4 1.9 0.8
27 Colin Castleton LAL 3.2 3.1 1.8
28 Bronny James LAL 2.8 2.1 0.7
29 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.1 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.