ATL @ OKC
NBA
Paycom Center
·Final
99–104
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 28 | 23 | 28 | 20 | 99 |
| OKC | 27 | 22 | 28 | 27 | 104 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 4 (OKC) / 3 (ATL) games this season
ATL
away
home
OKC
7%
93%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bufkin S | 36 | 31 | 3 | 4 |
| Dyson Daniels S | 23 | 13 | 8 | 4 |
| Garrison Mathews | 21 | 9 | 0 | 3 |
| Onyeka Okongwu S | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| David Roddy S | 28 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
| Kevon Harris | 25 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| Keaton Wallace | 21 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Mouhamed Gueye | 26 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Vit Krejci S | 31 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Chet Holmgren ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 3-foot two point shot (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jalen Williams
OKC
22%
2
Chet Holmgren
OKC
21%
3
Malevy Leons
OKC
20%
4
Dyson Daniels
ATL
19%
5
Vit Krejci
ATL
17%
6
Kobe Bufkin
ATL
0%
7
Ousmane Dieng
OKC
0%
8
David Roddy
ATL
0%
9
Mouhamed Gueye
ATL
0%
10
Larry Nance Jr.
ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
59%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
16%
Layup
9%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Williams | OKC | 14.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 2 | Dillon Jones | OKC | 14.4 | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| 3 | Ajay Mitchell | OKC | 12.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 4 | Ousmane Dieng | OKC | 12.1 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| 5 | Kobe Bufkin | ATL | 10.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| 6 | Aaron Wiggins | OKC | 9.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Dyson Daniels | ATL | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 8 | Chet Holmgren | OKC | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 |
| 9 | David Roddy | ATL | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 |
| 10 | Isaiah Joe | OKC | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 11 | Cason Wallace | OKC | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 12 | Adam Flagler | OKC | 8.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 13 | Vit Krejci | ATL | 7.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 14 | Alex Ducas | OKC | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 15 | Larry Nance Jr. | ATL | 7.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 |
| 16 | Alex Caruso | OKC | 6.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 17 | Malevy Leons | OKC | 5.3 | 4.6 | 0.9 |
| 18 | Garrison Mathews | ATL | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 19 | Cormac Ryan | OKC | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 20 | Mouhamed Gueye | ATL | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.