NBA games

SA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
107–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31183226107
HOU31373724129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (HOU) / 4 (SA) games this season
SA away
home HOU
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle 24 16 4 3
Sidy Cissoko 23 15 4 0
Malaki Branham S 23 15 0 3
Harrison Barnes S 22 12 4 0
Zach Collins S 22 10 4 6
Charles Bassey 14 10 5 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 19 9 1 2
Julian Champagnie S 22 5 5 0
Brandon Boston 9 4 2 1
Tre Jones S 23 4 3 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 27 30 2 2
Alperen Sengun S 26 21 10 2
Amen Thompson 20 18 6 2
Fred VanVleet S 28 15 1 5
Dillon Brooks S 26 12 7 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 24 11 9 1
Aaron Holiday 7 6 0 0
Tari Eason 15 6 5 3
Steven Adams 15 4 7 2
Reed Sheppard 20 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot layup (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
21%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
16%
3 Jalen Green HOU
14%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
14%
5 Chris Paul SA
12%
6 Julian Champagnie SA
11%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
11%
8 Malaki Branham SA
0%
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
0%
10 Cam Whitmore HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
9%
Layup
62%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 17.8 4.2 1.7
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.6 6.8 3.6
3 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 4.9 1.7
4 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.6 7.6 2.2
5 Cam Whitmore HOU 13.3 3.5 2.8
6 Julian Champagnie SA 11.8 4.0 1.2
7 Amen Thompson HOU 11.6 5.3 2.1
8 Malaki Branham SA 10.6 2.8 1.2
9 Stephon Castle SA 9.8 2.5 3.6
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 9.4 3.8 2.8
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 9.3 5.4 2.4
12 Chris Paul SA 8.9 2.8 4.9
13 Tre Jones SA 8.4 3.3 4.0
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 7.5 2.3 1.5
15 Harrison Barnes SA 7.3 3.2 1.8
16 Blake Wesley SA 5.9 3.2 4.2
17 Riley Minix SA 5.4 1.7 0.4
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.7 0.9
19 Nate Williams HOU 4.9 1.3 0.9
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.0 3.4 1.3
21 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.8 2.7 1.2
22 Malachi Flynn SA 3.6 1.1 0.9
23 N'Faly Dante HOU 3.4 1.9 0.6
24 Brandon Boston SA 2.6 0.8 0.3
25 Harrison Ingram SA 2.0 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.