NBA games

MIL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
84109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2216202684
DAL21332926109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (DAL) / 3 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 22 12 2 1
Anzejs Pasecniks 28 11 8 3
Ryan Rollins 14 10 2 3
Liam Robbins S 20 9 3 3
Pat Connaughton 16 8 3 3
MarJon Beauchamp 13 8 0 0
Tyler Smith S 17 7 10 0
Stanley Umude 9 6 1 0
Taurean Prince S 23 5 2 1
Delon Wright 9 3 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 19 14 2 2
Daniel Gafford S 17 11 4 3
Jaden Hardy 20 11 2 1
Klay Thompson S 18 11 6 2
Dereck Lively II 17 10 9 0
Naji Marshall 17 9 3 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 17 9 3 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 17 8 1 1
Brandon Williams 14 8 1 1
P.J. Washington S 22 6 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Layup (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes layup (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
22%
2 Dereck Lively II DAL
16%
3 Jazian Gortman DAL
15%
4 Jaden Hardy DAL
11%
5 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
11%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
11%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
8 Tyler Smith MIL
0%
9 Liam Robbins MIL
0%
10 AJ Johnson MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
58%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
13%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaden Hardy DAL 19.2 3.0 5.9
2 Damian Lillard MIL 16.4 4.3 6.0
3 Bobby Portis MIL 15.4 4.2 1.8
4 Jazian Gortman DAL 13.0 3.0 2.4
5 Quentin Grimes DAL 11.0 4.0 2.6
6 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 10.8 5.0 1.8
7 AJ Johnson MIL 8.9 3.1 3.2
8 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.5 5.1 2.3
9 Naji Marshall DAL 8.0 5.4 1.9
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.9 6.3 1.1
11 Brook Lopez MIL 6.7 4.1 1.2
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.6 2.1 1.6
13 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 6.5 1.7 1.9
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.4 2.3 2.0
15 Taurean Prince MIL 5.3 4.3 1.3
16 AJ Green MIL 5.3 2.1 1.1
17 Tyler Smith MIL 5.0 4.3 0.8
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.7 3.0 1.6
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.5 2.7 0.8
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.3 3.5 1.1
21 Anzejs Pasecniks MIL 4.2 2.9 0.9
22 Liam Robbins MIL 4.1 3.9 1.0
23 Jamarion Sharp DAL 3.7 3.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.