NBA games

CHA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
116–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHA2536242110116
IND2920243315121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (IND) / 4 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home IND
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 19 20 0 1
Nick Smith Jr. 25 14 3 3
Moussa Diabate 24 11 5 2
Nick Richards S 13 10 5 0
Charlie Brown Jr. 21 9 2 2
Seth Curry S 15 8 1 3
Keyontae Johnson 24 8 2 1
Tidjane Salaun 32 7 14 2
KJ Simpson 23 6 5 5
Grant Williams S 17 6 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 25 18 4 2
Enrique Freeman 14 15 5 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 25 14 5 5
Ben Sheppard 28 14 1 1
T.J. McConnell 13 8 2 4
Bennedict Mathurin 20 8 3 3
Andrew Nembhard S 23 8 3 3
James Wiseman 14 8 6 0
Cole Swider 13 6 4 0
Quenton Jackson 10 6 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
2 Obi Toppin IND
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
5 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
6 Nick Richards CHA
9%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
8 Jarace Walker IND
9%
9 Seth Curry CHA
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
46%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
14%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.8 4.6 6.8
2 Tre Mann CHA 18.5 4.0 4.1
3 Brandon Miller CHA 18.3 4.8 2.8
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.8 2.7 2.2
5 Tidjane Salaun CHA 14.5 6.0 1.9
6 Jarace Walker IND 12.5 4.7 2.7
7 Miles Bridges CHA 10.2 4.9 2.1
8 Obi Toppin IND 7.8 3.1 1.5
9 Nick Richards CHA 7.7 8.0 1.2
10 James Wiseman IND 7.5 5.5 0.7
11 Quenton Jackson IND 7.5 2.3 2.2
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.4 1.7 2.2
13 Cole Swider IND 7.4 3.2 1.4
14 Enrique Freeman IND 7.2 6.5 1.5
15 Ben Sheppard IND 7.2 2.5 1.6
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.9 5.1 1.3
17 Tristen Newton IND 6.4 2.1 3.4
18 Keyontae Johnson CHA 6.0 3.0 1.1
19 Seth Curry CHA 5.8 1.6 1.2
20 KJ Simpson CHA 5.7 2.4 1.5
21 Charlie Brown Jr. CHA 5.6 1.9 1.0
22 Vasilije Micic CHA 5.5 2.0 3.2
23 Taj Gibson CHA 4.7 3.0 0.8
24 Harry Giles III CHA 4.2 3.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.