NBA games

MIN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
123125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33253233123
CHI30412727125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (CHI) / 3 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Minott 22 18 3 0
Donte DiVincenzo 28 17 2 5
Anthony Edwards S 30 16 3 3
Julius Randle S 26 15 6 5
Rudy Gobert S 27 13 17 0
Jaden McDaniels S 23 12 4 5
Luka Garza 15 11 3 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 8 5 2
PJ Dozier 6 5 1 1
Mike Conley S 17 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 31 23 2 4
Zach LaVine S 31 19 5 4
Nikola Vucevic S 30 17 12 4
Talen Horton-Tucker 25 17 4 5
Patrick Williams S 26 12 6 1
Jalen Smith 18 10 8 3
Lonzo Ball 15 10 1 1
Torrey Craig 22 7 3 1
Jevon Carter 8 6 0 0
Josh Giddey S 28 4 3 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey CHI
30%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
23%
3 Adama Sanogo CHI
23%
4 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
22%
5 Josh Minott MIN
0%
6 Rob Dillingham MIN
0%
7 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI
0%
8 Luka Garza MIN
0%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
0%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
17%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Josh Minott MIN 15.9 7.0 2.8
2 Luka Garza MIN 13.5 5.9 1.4
3 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.9 3.8 3.9
4 Josh Giddey CHI 12.5 5.8 4.6
5 Rob Dillingham MIN 12.0 2.9 4.8
6 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 11.8 4.2 1.9
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.0 3.7 1.4
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.8 2.3 1.6
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.3 2.3 1.9
10 Joe Ingles MIN 6.1 2.5 2.6
11 Adama Sanogo CHI 5.8 5.1 1.0
12 Daishen Nix MIN 5.7 1.2 1.3
13 Chris Duarte CHI 5.5 2.7 0.9
14 Leonard Miller MIN 5.0 3.4 0.8
15 DJ Steward CHI 3.6 1.5 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.