NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
92–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE3427141792
DET28322127108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (DET) / 2 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 27 19 8 1
Donovan Mitchell S 25 13 2 4
Evan Mobley S 23 10 4 2
Darius Garland S 25 9 1 2
Ty Jerome 15 8 4 0
JT Thor 12 6 1 1
Caris LeVert S 21 6 3 6
Dean Wade 19 5 5 1
Craig Porter Jr. 12 5 2 0
Georges Niang 15 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Simone Fontecchio 19 18 3 2
Daniss Jenkins 24 13 2 2
Ronald Holland II 25 8 6 3
Lamar Stevens 20 7 4 2
Aaron Estrada 11 7 0 2
Tobias Harris S 8 6 1 1
Jalen Duren S 8 6 3 2
Cade Cunningham S 8 6 3 4
Paul Reed 18 6 9 2
Wendell Moore Jr. 14 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
33%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
27%
3 Jalen Duren DET
23%
4 Malik Beasley DET
15%
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
0%
6 Simone Fontecchio DET
0%
7 Paul Reed DET
0%
8 Wendell Moore Jr. DET
0%
9 Marcus Sasser DET
0%
10 Daniss Jenkins DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaden Ivey DET 19.5 4.1 3.7
2 Cade Cunningham DET 18.2 5.8 6.9
3 Jalen Duren DET 11.9 8.1 2.0
4 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 3.8 2.8
5 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.4 3.3 1.1
6 Malik Beasley DET 7.5 2.5 1.7
7 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.6 2.9 1.0
8 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 6.0 3.5 0.8
9 Marcus Sasser DET 5.5 1.3 2.4
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 4.8 2.7 1.1
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.4 2.6 1.6
12 Paul Reed DET 3.5 3.1 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.