NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
111–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31272528111
LAL2823192797

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (LAL) / 4 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody 19 21 5 2
Stephen Curry S 28 16 5 6
Jonathan Kuminga S 20 11 6 3
Andrew Wiggins S 21 11 0 1
Buddy Hield 21 10 1 2
Kyle Anderson 17 10 3 2
Draymond Green S 26 10 10 3
Gary Payton II 15 10 5 2
Kevon Looney 17 6 5 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 26 2 10 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 26 24 12 2
Dalton Knecht 21 19 2 0
Rui Hachimura S 28 15 9 1
Austin Reaves S 17 13 3 2
LeBron James S 23 6 2 4
D'Angelo Russell S 30 6 7 2
Jaxson Hayes 19 4 2 2
Cam Reddish 8 3 1 0
Colin Castleton 8 2 2 1
Bronny James 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Moses Moody GS
13%
2 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
3 Max Christie LAL
10%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 De'Anthony Melton GS
10%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
7 Stephen Curry GS
10%
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
43%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dalton Knecht LAL 14.0 4.5 3.0
2 Moses Moody GS 13.7 3.4 2.1
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.9 2.3 4.1
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.8 4.2 1.6
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.6 6.3 1.4
6 Max Christie LAL 10.9 4.1 1.4
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.2 4.3 4.9
8 Buddy Hield GS 9.7 2.6 1.4
9 De'Anthony Melton GS 9.1 3.2 3.1
10 Lindy Waters III GS 8.8 3.7 1.0
11 Stephen Curry GS 8.4 1.9 2.3
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.9 7.0 1.7
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.6 1.0 0.9
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.2 6.1 1.2
15 Draymond Green GS 6.1 1.7 2.3
16 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.8 2.5 2.4
17 Kyle Anderson GS 5.5 2.9 2.0
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 4.0 1.6
19 Gary Payton II GS 3.7 2.1 1.7
20 Reece Beekman GS 3.3 1.5 1.2
21 Pat Spencer GS 3.3 2.2 1.8
22 Quinten Post GS 2.9 1.4 0.8
23 Gui Santos GS 2.8 1.6 0.9
24 Colin Castleton LAL 2.6 3.0 1.9
25 Bronny James LAL 2.5 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.