NBA games

SAC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
114–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30262731114
UTAH31272930117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (UTAH) / 3 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home UTAH
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 36 29 17 8
De'Aaron Fox S 36 22 7 5
Keegan Murray S 37 21 5 1
DeMar DeRozan S 36 17 3 5
Jordan McLaughlin 20 9 4 5
Malik Monk 29 5 4 3
Keon Ellis S 24 4 2 3
Alex Len 14 3 2 2
Mason Jones 3 2 0 0
Isaac Jones 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 29 24 3 5
Lauri Markkanen S 32 21 4 0
Collin Sexton S 24 16 1 6
John Collins 20 12 4 0
Jordan Clarkson 24 11 4 5
Walker Kessler S 28 10 9 1
Taylor Hendricks S 28 9 8 0
Cody Williams 20 6 4 3
Patty Mills 19 5 2 0
Brice Sensabaugh 16 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes 2-foot layup (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
8 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
9 DeMar DeRozan SAC
7%
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.1 4.6 1.5
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 14.7 4.6 3.9
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 14.4 5.6 2.7
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 14.3 3.2 3.6
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.1 10.2 5.2
6 Keyonte George UTAH 13.7 2.4 3.4
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 12.3 3.5 2.0
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 11.9 4.4 2.5
9 Keegan Murray SAC 11.5 3.1 1.8
10 John Collins UTAH 10.8 5.6 2.6
11 Johnny Juzang UTAH 9.9 2.1 1.1
12 Keon Ellis SAC 9.6 3.0 2.8
13 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.2 4.0 1.7
14 Cody Williams UTAH 9.0 2.9 1.6
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.4 9.8 1.8
16 Alex Len SAC 7.9 6.1 1.7
17 Drew Eubanks UTAH 6.1 5.1 0.9
18 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.8 1.5 4.1
19 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.5 3.7 1.3
20 Isaac Jones SAC 5.4 3.2 1.6
21 Mason Jones SAC 4.7 3.1 0.8
22 Isaiah Crawford SAC 4.5 2.4 0.9
23 Colby Jones SAC 3.9 1.7 2.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.