NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
12494
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30322537124
DEN3320182394

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (DEN) / 3 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 20 19 3 5
Isaiah Joe 18 14 5 1
Jalen Williams S 20 14 2 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 21 11 3 3
Aaron Wiggins 17 10 4 2
Ousmane Dieng 22 10 3 5
Ajay Mitchell 17 9 0 1
Chet Holmgren S 18 8 7 0
Cason Wallace 20 7 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 21 6 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 15 6 1
Trey Alexander 27 12 3 2
Julian Strawther S 28 12 2 4
Aaron Gordon S 23 11 5 5
Zeke Nnaji S 25 11 3 1
Christian Braun S 26 7 5 3
DeAndre Jordan 17 6 9 1
Dario Saric 18 5 4 4
Vlatko Cancar 7 5 1 0
Hunter Tyson 16 4 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 16-foot jumper (Christian Braun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Jones OKC
21%
2 Christian Braun DEN
18%
3 Malevy Leons OKC
16%
4 Ousmane Dieng OKC
15%
5 Adam Flagler OKC
15%
6 Alex Ducas OKC
13%
7 Julian Strawther DEN
0%
8 Cormac Ryan OKC
0%
9 Hunter Tyson DEN
0%
10 Vlatko Cancar DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
14%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dillon Jones OKC 17.1 6.2 4.0
2 Julian Strawther DEN 15.5 3.6 2.3
3 Ousmane Dieng OKC 10.6 5.9 3.5
4 Christian Braun DEN 8.5 4.1 2.0
5 Adam Flagler OKC 8.3 2.1 1.6
6 Alex Ducas OKC 7.3 1.8 1.3
7 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.7 3.4 0.8
8 Dario Saric DEN 6.7 4.3 1.5
9 Hunter Tyson DEN 5.8 4.7 1.4
10 Trey Alexander DEN 5.4 2.7 2.5
11 Cormac Ryan OKC 4.2 1.2 1.0
12 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.9 2.2 1.6
13 Malevy Leons OKC 3.8 4.8 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.