NBA games

CHA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
105–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30332616105
NY24412719111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (NY) / 3 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NY
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 29 26 5 3
Tre Mann 22 16 4 5
LaMelo Ball S 26 14 2 7
Tidjane Salaun S 37 13 8 0
Nick Richards S 18 8 3 0
Grant Williams 18 7 1 1
Keyontae Johnson 16 5 3 1
Moussa Diabate 16 5 4 0
Charlie Brown Jr. 12 4 2 0
Miles Bridges S 15 3 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Precious Achiuwa S 35 20 16 3
Miles McBride S 35 18 1 5
Cameron Payne S 36 16 5 8
Pacome Dadiet 28 16 5 0
T.J. Warren 19 11 7 2
Landry Shamet S 20 8 2 0
Ariel Hukporti 22 8 5 1
Jericho Sims S 20 7 10 0
Tyler Kolek 24 7 8 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 29-foot three point shot (Brandon Miller assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Hart NY
16%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
9%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
9%
7 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
8 Nick Richards CHA
8%
9 Seth Curry CHA
7%
10 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
14%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 21.6 3.2 4.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.0 10.6 1.7
3 Tre Mann CHA 17.4 3.8 3.0
4 Cameron Payne NY 13.2 3.0 4.4
5 Brandon Miller CHA 12.8 4.6 2.2
6 Miles Bridges CHA 11.5 5.4 1.6
7 Tidjane Salaun CHA 11.5 4.6 1.8
8 Mikal Bridges NY 11.3 4.1 1.4
9 Landry Shamet NY 10.5 3.6 1.9
10 OG Anunoby NY 9.2 5.0 1.2
11 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.9 5.6 1.6
12 Nick Richards CHA 6.5 8.1 0.9
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.5 5.1 1.2
14 Josh Hart NY 5.2 3.8 2.5
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 5.1 1.9 2.9
16 Seth Curry CHA 4.9 1.4 1.1
17 KJ Simpson CHA 4.8 1.8 1.1
18 Keyontae Johnson CHA 4.0 2.4 0.6
19 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 5.8 0.7
20 Harry Giles III CHA 2.4 2.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.