NBA games

SA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
117–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA21283533117
MIA27322338120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (MIA) / 3 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIA
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremy Sochan S 28 18 11 1
Malaki Branham 13 15 3 2
Keldon Johnson 22 15 5 1
Chris Paul S 25 13 2 5
Harrison Barnes S 27 10 4 1
Zach Collins 21 9 3 3
Tre Jones 18 8 3 3
Victor Wembanyama S 17 8 7 3
Julian Champagnie S 17 8 3 0
Stephon Castle 21 6 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 24 20 3 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18 15 6 5
Tyler Herro S 24 14 1 4
Jimmy Butler III S 24 12 4 1
Duncan Robinson 20 10 3 4
Nikola Jovic S 24 7 3 1
Kevin Love 8 6 1 0
Thomas Bryant 11 6 2 0
Terry Rozier S 24 5 5 5
Josh Christopher 5 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jeremy Sochan SA
42%
2 Julian Champagnie SA
29%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
27%
4 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
0%
5 Blake Wesley SA
0%
6 Harrison Ingram SA
0%
7 Malachi Flynn SA
0%
8 Brandon Boston SA
0%
9 Sidy Cissoko SA
0%
10 Stephon Castle SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
15%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julian Champagnie SA 12.4 4.7 1.5
2 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.8 6.6 2.4
3 Stephon Castle SA 11.4 2.8 3.6
4 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 9.9 3.1 2.4
5 Harrison Barnes SA 6.9 3.1 2.0
6 Blake Wesley SA 6.6 3.8 4.2
7 Riley Minix SA 6.2 2.0 0.6
8 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.5 3.1 1.5
9 Malachi Flynn SA 4.2 1.6 1.2
10 Brandon Boston SA 3.3 1.2 0.6
11 Harrison Ingram SA 2.8 2.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.