NBA games

BOS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
118–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS27401932118
TOR46203122119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (TOR) / 4 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home TOR
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 34 24 7 6
Derrick White S 31 23 2 3
Jaylen Brown S 25 19 0 1
Payton Pritchard S 29 15 3 2
JD Davison 5 12 0 0
Luke Kornet 21 10 6 1
Jordan Walsh 24 7 3 1
Baylor Scheierman 7 4 0 0
Ron Harper Jr. 7 2 1 1
Al Horford S 23 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 32 27 6 0
Scottie Barnes S 30 26 9 10
Ochai Agbaji S 31 16 5 3
Jakob Poeltl S 30 15 16 4
Davion Mitchell S 31 9 3 10
Jamison Battle 16 8 1 1
Bruno Fernando 14 6 7 0
D.J. Carton 10 4 5 3
Jahmi'us Ramsey 10 4 1 0
Jamal Shead 6 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Davion Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luke Kornet BOS
9%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
5 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
7 Derrick White BOS
7%
8 Jayson Tatum BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Jordan Walsh BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
70%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
6%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 17.3 4.2 3.3
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 16.2 5.6 4.9
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.5 3.4 6.2
4 Chris Boucher TOR 12.7 4.7 1.2
5 Gradey Dick TOR 11.4 3.0 2.0
6 Drew Peterson BOS 10.2 2.7 1.4
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.1 7.2 2.6
8 Derrick White BOS 9.5 3.0 2.6
9 Jordan Walsh BOS 8.5 3.9 1.6
10 Jamal Shead TOR 8.5 1.3 3.1
11 Luke Kornet BOS 8.4 6.4 1.6
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 5.0 1.4
13 Jahmi'us Ramsey TOR 7.6 1.6 1.1
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.2 2.7 2.2
15 Xavier Tillman BOS 7.1 4.1 1.0
16 Lonnie Walker IV BOS 7.0 1.8 2.1
17 Neemias Queta BOS 6.9 6.2 1.9
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.5 6.1 2.9
19 Jrue Holiday BOS 6.4 2.3 0.9
20 JD Davison BOS 6.0 2.0 2.8
21 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.0 2.6 4.6
22 Jamison Battle TOR 5.7 1.3 0.8
23 D.J. Carton TOR 5.6 1.6 1.6
24 Bruno Fernando TOR 5.4 4.3 1.3
25 Jaden Springer BOS 4.9 1.1 1.4
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.8 2.0 0.8
27 Dmytro Skapintsev BOS 3.3 2.1 0.4
28 Branden Carlson TOR 3.3 1.7 0.7
29 Jared Rhoden TOR 3.1 2.0 0.8
30 Anton Watson BOS 2.9 1.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.