NBA games

MEM @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
120–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31293129120
IND17322938116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (IND) / 3 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home IND
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Edey 19 23 9 1
Desmond Bane S 22 23 2 2
Jaylen Wells 27 12 6 3
Yuki Kawamura 25 10 1 7
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 23 9 2 5
Jay Huff 10 8 1 2
Jake LaRavia S 25 7 8 6
John Konchar 21 6 8 0
Santi Aldama S 18 6 3 1
Maozinha Pereira 9 6 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 38 15 6 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 29 12 1 2
Myles Turner S 17 12 7 2
Ben Sheppard 25 12 2 5
James Wiseman 10 10 3 2
Quenton Jackson 8 10 1 3
Cole Swider 22 10 5 3
Andrew Nembhard S 20 10 1 4
Obi Toppin S 17 8 1 1
Enrique Freeman 24 6 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 3-foot layup (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 8)
1 Zach Edey MEM
26%
2 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
19%
3 Jake LaRavia MEM
19%
4 John Konchar MEM
18%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
17%
6 Jay Huff MEM
0%
7 Maozinha Pereira MEM
0%
8 Yuki Kawamura MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
11%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Wells MEM 17.6 4.0 3.8
2 Jake LaRavia MEM 13.4 6.1 2.6
3 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.5 3.0 5.2
4 Zach Edey MEM 10.9 7.4 1.6
5 Jay Huff MEM 10.8 5.7 1.6
6 John Konchar MEM 9.4 6.0 2.5
7 Yuki Kawamura MEM 5.4 1.3 4.2
8 Maozinha Pereira MEM 4.4 4.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.