NBA games

DET @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
93–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET1724282493
GS31292625111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (GS) / 3 (DET) games this season
DET away
home GS
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 26 19 2 4
Cade Cunningham S 24 18 3 7
Jalen Duren S 23 14 9 3
Tobias Harris S 26 6 4 4
Aaron Estrada 4 6 0 0
Isaiah Stewart 13 5 0 0
Daniss Jenkins 7 3 4 0
Tolu Smith 7 3 3 1
Lamar Stevens 7 3 2 2
Simone Fontecchio 10 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody S 25 14 2 3
Lindy Waters III 19 13 7 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 27 12 10 3
Buddy Hield 14 12 3 2
Brandin Podziemski S 20 12 4 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 23 12 2 1
Kevon Looney 13 8 3 2
Gary Payton II 15 5 3 2
De'Anthony Melton S 23 5 4 7
Jackson Rowe 5 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trayce Jackson-Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Trayce Jackson-Davis makes alley oop layup (De'Anthony Melton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden Ivey DET
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Moses Moody GS
12%
5 Stephen Curry GS
11%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
10%
7 Gary Payton II GS
9%
8 Kyle Anderson GS
9%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Malik Beasley DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
47%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
22%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaden Ivey DET 17.6 4.4 2.8
2 Cade Cunningham DET 15.8 6.4 6.1
3 Moses Moody GS 13.0 3.4 1.7
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.3 5.1 1.5
5 Ronald Holland II DET 10.2 4.1 3.1
6 Buddy Hield GS 9.8 2.6 1.4
7 Jalen Duren DET 9.7 7.0 1.6
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.1 4.3 4.6
9 Stephen Curry GS 8.9 2.0 2.5
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.4 4.0 1.0
11 Malik Beasley DET 8.3 2.8 1.6
12 Lindy Waters III GS 8.1 2.8 1.0
13 De'Anthony Melton GS 7.8 2.9 1.7
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.2 3.6 1.1
15 Draymond Green GS 6.6 1.8 2.4
16 Kyle Anderson GS 6.1 2.5 2.3
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.6 1.4 2.4
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 5.4 1.5
19 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 5.1 3.0 1.2
20 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.5 2.3 1.7
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.2 3.8 1.4
22 Paul Reed DET 3.9 3.6 1.3
23 Pat Spencer GS 3.5 2.3 1.7
24 Reece Beekman GS 3.4 1.4 0.8
25 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 3.1 2.1 0.5
26 Gui Santos GS 2.8 1.3 0.9
27 Gary Payton II GS 2.8 1.7 1.5
28 Quinten Post GS 2.6 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.