NBA games

PHX @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
118–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX26253730118
DEN33273024114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (DEN) / 3 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DEN
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Dunn S 30 20 4 4
Monte Morris S 26 20 2 7
Royce O'Neale S 18 17 4 4
Bol Bol S 28 14 8 1
Collin Gillespie 22 12 4 6
TyTy Washington Jr. 15 9 1 1
Frank Kaminsky 15 7 6 1
Damion Lee 20 5 2 1
Mason Plumlee S 15 4 7 2
Oso Ighodaro 26 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 21 14 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 21 3 1
Julian Strawther 30 21 4 4
Aaron Gordon S 28 12 5 3
Christian Braun S 30 11 4 1
Zeke Nnaji 12 11 2 0
Russell Westbrook 24 9 0 6
Dario Saric 18 6 6 2
Jamal Murray S 19 2 3 3
Vlatko Cancar 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes driving dunk (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
26%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
22%
3 Mason Plumlee PHX
18%
4 Tyus Jones PHX
18%
5 Ryan Dunn PHX
15%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
0%
7 Bol Bol PHX
0%
8 Monte Morris PHX
0%
9 Frank Kaminsky PHX
0%
10 Jalen Bridges PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
28%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 16.5 3.8 2.4
2 Bradley Beal PHX 13.2 3.1 2.2
3 Tyus Jones PHX 10.2 2.0 5.3
4 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.4 4.2 1.3
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX 9.3 6.2 4.3
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.3 1.8 2.5
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.5 3.7 1.3
8 Josh Okogie PHX 7.5 2.5 1.6
9 Mason Plumlee PHX 7.3 3.8 2.0
10 Monte Morris PHX 7.3 2.9 3.3
11 Frank Kaminsky PHX 5.9 2.9 0.8
12 Damion Lee PHX 5.6 1.9 1.0
13 Bol Bol PHX 5.2 5.0 1.6
14 Jalen Bridges PHX 4.2 2.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.