NBA games

TOR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
111–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR20173242111
BOS41282224115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (BOS) / 2 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BOS
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 24 18 2 0
Jamal Shead 19 14 0 5
Jakob Poeltl S 25 14 13 2
Scottie Barnes S 26 10 1 2
Chris Boucher 22 9 2 1
Jahmi'us Ramsey 13 9 2 1
Jamison Battle 5 8 2 2
Jonathan Mogbo 21 8 10 4
Bruno Fernando 14 6 2 1
Ochai Agbaji S 27 5 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Drew Peterson 23 23 3 3
Lonnie Walker IV S 30 20 0 1
Payton Pritchard S 24 19 5 9
Jordan Walsh S 30 16 10 1
Neemias Queta S 21 12 15 5
JD Davison 24 9 2 5
Jaden Springer 17 6 0 2
Sam Hauser S 25 5 9 1
Anton Watson 12 4 2 1
Dmytro Skapintsev 15 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luke Kornet BOS
24%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
23%
3 Derrick White BOS
18%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
17%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
17%
6 Jordan Walsh BOS
0%
7 Xavier Tillman BOS
0%
8 Neemias Queta BOS
0%
9 Lonnie Walker IV BOS
0%
10 JD Davison BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
68%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
6%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 17.5 4.9 3.4
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 16.4 6.3 5.0
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.9 3.8 6.0
4 Derrick White BOS 9.7 3.7 2.6
5 Sam Hauser BOS 9.5 4.9 1.7
6 Luke Kornet BOS 8.5 7.1 1.7
7 Xavier Tillman BOS 7.5 4.8 1.1
8 Jordan Walsh BOS 7.1 4.0 1.6
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 6.6 3.0 0.9
10 Neemias Queta BOS 5.6 4.8 1.3
11 JD Davison BOS 5.2 2.5 2.1
12 Lonnie Walker IV BOS 4.8 2.9 2.6
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.5 2.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.