Saturday, October 12, 2024

UTAH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final

120–126

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UTAH	29	24	38	29	120
SA	27	25	36	38	126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 2 (SA) / 3 (UTAH) games this season

UTAH away

home SA

55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Collin Sexton S	31	24	6	8	8/16	4/9	0
Cody Williams S	30	17	5	2	6/10	3/4	-10
Svi Mykhailiuk	17	16	1	2	5/13	3/9	3
Taylor Hendricks S	26	13	4	1	4/13	2/10	-2
Brice Sensabaugh	27	12	4	5	3/9	3/8	-2
Drew Eubanks	23	11	5	0	4/4	0/0	-2
Kyle Filipowski	22	9	7	3	4/8	0/4	-4
Walker Kessler S	25	7	10	2	3/4	0/0	-4
Johnny Juzang	20	7	3	0	2/3	2/3	-7
Isaiah Collier S	10	2	0	2	1/1	0/0	-2

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Keldon Johnson	23	20	4	2	9/13	1/2	4
Julian Champagnie S	21	15	3	0	4/8	4/8	-4
Sandro Mamukelashvili	18	15	2	5	5/10	3/6	1
Jeremy Sochan S	25	15	8	1	7/12	0/0	3
Zach Collins S	20	11	2	1	4/13	0/6	-1
Stephon Castle	19	11	2	3	4/7	1/2	10
Tre Jones	22	10	4	6	5/5	0/0	7
Riley Minix	5	8	2	0	3/3	1/1	-1
Harrison Barnes S	27	8	2	3	2/7	2/6	-1
Blake Wesley	19	6	5	4	3/6	0/1	5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Collin Sexton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1

"Collin Sexton makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH

27%

2 Collin Sexton UTAH

24%

3 Walker Kessler UTAH

21%

4 Keyonte George UTAH

14%

5 Taylor Hendricks UTAH

13%

6 Cody Williams UTAH

7 Isaiah Collier UTAH

8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH

9 John Collins UTAH

10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

25%

Dunk

Free Throw

13%

Jumper

35%

Layup

19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Lauri Markkanen	UTAH	17.8	4.9	1.6	—	—	—
2	Keyonte George	UTAH	14.0	2.8	3.5	—	—	—
3	Jordan Clarkson	UTAH	12.2	4.0	2.2	—	—	—
4	Brice Sensabaugh	UTAH	11.2	5.1	1.9	12	4	5
5	John Collins	UTAH	11.0	6.1	2.9	—	—	—
6	Collin Sexton	UTAH	9.9	4.4	2.4	24	6	8
7	Walker Kessler	UTAH	8.9	10.3	1.4	7	10	2
8	Taylor Hendricks	UTAH	7.9	4.3	1.8	13	4	1
9	Cody Williams	UTAH	7.1	2.9	1.6	17	5	2
10	Isaiah Collier	UTAH	6.9	1.7	4.9	2	0	2
11	Kyle Filipowski	UTAH	4.5	3.5	0.9	9	7	3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.