NBA games

ATL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
111–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32371527111
MIA34323717120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (MIA) / 2 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIA
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 17 21 5 4
Kobe Bufkin 24 15 4 4
David Roddy 33 15 4 1
Kevon Harris 10 13 2 1
Trae Young S 17 10 0 7
Garrison Mathews 22 9 1 1
Dyson Daniels S 24 9 5 1
Vit Krejci S 22 5 2 3
Larry Nance Jr. 20 4 4 2
Mouhamed Gueye 21 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 21 24 5 3
Tyler Herro S 23 19 5 5
Haywood Highsmith 17 16 4 0
Alec Burks 14 9 5 2
Bam Adebayo S 23 7 7 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 14 6 4 2
Josh Christopher 10 6 1 1
Terry Rozier S 23 6 4 4
Kevin Love 8 6 0 1
Kel'el Ware 10 5 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Clint Capela makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
29%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
25%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
24%
4 Nikola Jovic MIA
20%
5 Kevin Love MIA
0%
6 Duncan Robinson MIA
0%
7 Thomas Bryant MIA
0%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
0%
9 Josh Christopher MIA
0%
10 Dru Smith MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
51%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
9%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 12.8 5.1 2.0
2 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.7 2.9 2.6
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 9.0 3.4 1.8
4 Terry Rozier MIA 9.0 4.5 2.8
5 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.0 3.0 1.7
6 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.0 1.7 1.8
7 Kel'el Ware MIA 6.8 4.5 0.8
8 Thomas Bryant MIA 6.5 3.5 0.9
9 Josh Christopher MIA 6.5 2.5 3.5
10 Dru Smith MIA 6.4 2.6 3.7
11 Kevin Love MIA 5.2 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.