NBA games

PHX @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
98–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2529212398
SAC33242923109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SAC
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 28 20 2 5
Tyus Jones S 26 17 2 4
Ryan Dunn S 30 12 10 3
Collin Gillespie S 28 12 3 3
Oso Ighodaro 26 10 4 3
Monte Morris 21 8 3 2
Royce O'Neale 21 5 3 3
Mason Plumlee S 22 4 5 3
Damion Lee 6 4 1 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 13 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas 21 22 10 4
Domantas Sabonis S 24 20 12 6
Zach LaVine S 27 16 0 2
Trey Lyles 25 11 2 1
Keon Ellis S 29 9 2 3
DeMar DeRozan S 28 8 0 5
Keegan Murray S 23 6 7 2
Doug McDermott 15 6 0 2
Devin Carter 23 5 5 1
Markelle Fultz 12 4 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Gillespie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three pointer (Mason Plumlee assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
20%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
16%
3 Ryan Dunn PHX
12%
4 Oso Ighodaro PHX
11%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Keon Ellis SAC
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
0%
10 Mason Plumlee PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.7 4.4 6.0
2 Zach LaVine SAC 24.2 3.4 4.3
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.6 12.6 6.5
4 Keegan Murray SAC 13.2 6.0 1.6
5 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.0 5.0 1.2
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.3 3.6 3.2
7 Grayson Allen PHX 8.7 2.7 1.7
8 Keon Ellis SAC 8.6 3.5 1.9
9 Tyus Jones PHX 8.4 2.7 2.8
10 Trey Lyles SAC 7.5 4.6 1.4
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.3 2.9 1.5
12 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.6 4.1 1.3
13 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 5.2 4.5 0.9
14 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 4.8 1.1
15 Cody Martin PHX 4.6 3.3 0.9
16 Monte Morris PHX 4.1 1.0 0.8
17 Devin Carter SAC 3.8 1.8 1.0
18 Damion Lee PHX 3.7 1.3 0.6
19 Doug McDermott SAC 3.5 1.0 0.6
20 Bol Bol PHX 3.4 1.5 0.5
21 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.0 1.4 0.9
22 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.0 0.9 1.1
23 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.9 1.3 0.6
24 Jae Crowder SAC 2.9 1.6 0.6
25 Isaac Jones SAC 2.7 1.3 0.6
26 Terry Taylor SAC 1.6 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.