NBA games

LAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
81–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2518182081
POR29293120109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home POR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalton Knecht S 37 27 8 0
Shake Milton S 43 16 2 3
Jordan Goodwin 30 12 7 4
Markieff Morris S 33 11 4 6
Alex Len S 14 4 2 1
Christian Koloko 19 4 8 0
Bronny James S 38 4 3 6
Trey Jemison III 25 3 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton S 36 23 5 7
Matisse Thybulle S 29 15 5 2
Toumani Camara S 22 14 6 4
Rayan Rupert 28 13 10 1
Donovan Clingan S 25 12 12 3
Jabari Walker 23 10 2 1
Kris Murray S 30 10 11 3
Sidy Cissoko 29 7 2 4
Justin Minaya 18 5 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 27-foot three pointer (Donovan Clingan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
23%
2 Toumani Camara POR
10%
3 Deni Avdija POR
9%
4 Dalano Banton POR
9%
5 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
9 Kris Murray POR
8%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
37%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 25.6 10.4 6.0
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.9 6.3 4.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 19.1 2.9 4.0
4 Toumani Camara POR 14.4 5.2 2.5
5 Jerami Grant POR 13.1 4.1 2.3
6 Scoot Henderson POR 13.1 3.0 4.4
7 Dalano Banton POR 11.0 3.2 3.7
8 Donovan Clingan POR 9.6 9.2 1.8
9 Matisse Thybulle POR 9.1 3.3 2.1
10 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.6 2.0 1.3
11 Duop Reath POR 7.5 3.6 1.2
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.8 5.2 0.9
13 Jabari Walker POR 6.6 3.4 1.0
14 Rayan Rupert POR 5.6 1.8 1.0
15 Kris Murray POR 5.4 2.7 1.5
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.8 5.4 0.9
17 Bronny James LAL 4.7 1.5 1.0
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 4.4 3.1 1.2
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.0 1.5 0.7
20 Shake Milton LAL 3.5 1.9 0.9
21 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.3 2.6 0.6
22 Markieff Morris LAL 3.2 1.1 0.9
23 Christian Koloko LAL 2.8 2.5 0.5
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.7 1.2 0.6
25 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.7 1.5 0.8
26 Alex Len LAL 1.9 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.