NBA games

LAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
124–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAC2535232813124
GS332524298119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home GS
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 48 39 7 10
Kawhi Leonard S 47 33 6 7
Ivica Zubac S 42 22 17 3
Kris Dunn S 35 11 1 6
Norman Powell S 44 11 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 16 5 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 18 3 5 1
Ben Simmons 11 0 2 1
Amir Coffey 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 38 36 3 6
Jimmy Butler III S 48 30 1 9
Brandin Podziemski S 43 19 7 4
Draymond Green S 38 14 3 4
Buddy Hield 16 8 1 0
Kevon Looney 16 6 3 3
Moses Moody S 30 4 0 2
Gary Payton II 25 2 4 3
Quinten Post 10 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Norman Powell LAC
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Moses Moody GS
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.2 4.9 5.6
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.1 7.2 3.6
3 James Harden LAC 24.0 5.5 8.2
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.5 12.0 3.6
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.0 4.6 4.7
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.7 5.3 4.1
7 Norman Powell LAC 16.3 2.8 2.2
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.6 3.9 1.8
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 9.8 2.9 3.0
10 Draymond Green GS 9.3 5.5 4.9
11 Moses Moody GS 9.2 2.9 1.5
12 Buddy Hield GS 9.2 3.1 1.3
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.1 3.2 1.2
14 Gary Payton II GS 9.0 3.1 1.4
15 Kris Dunn LAC 8.5 3.3 1.8
16 Quinten Post GS 7.2 2.4 1.1
17 Amir Coffey LAC 4.9 1.2 0.8
18 Gui Santos GS 4.4 2.6 1.5
19 Kevon Looney GS 4.2 4.3 1.0
20 Ben Simmons LAC 3.5 3.5 1.9
21 Braxton Key GS 3.4 1.4 0.5
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.2 2.1 0.6
23 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.1 2.4 0.6
24 Kevin Knox II GS 3.0 1.5 0.5
25 Pat Spencer GS 3.0 1.1 0.9
26 Trentyn Flowers LAC 2.1 0.9 0.4
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 1.9 1.1 0.3
28 Kobe Brown LAC 1.8 1.0 0.6
29 Cam Christie LAC 1.8 1.0 0.6
30 Jordan Miller LAC 1.7 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.