NBA games

TOR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
118–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR37372123118
SA32223932125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home SA
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 35 11 8
Jamison Battle S 42 25 9 3
Ochai Agbaji S 38 14 2 1
A.J. Lawson 21 14 0 0
Jamal Shead S 36 11 4 9
Colin Castleton 29 10 2 0
Jonathan Mogbo S 35 9 14 10
Garrett Temple 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 27 23 9 0
Stephon Castle S 37 20 8 6
Harrison Barnes S 34 18 5 1
Chris Paul S 34 15 7 6
Julian Champagnie S 35 14 6 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 19 12 4 4
Malaki Branham 17 11 3 0
Blake Wesley 20 8 1 4
Bismack Biyombo S 14 2 7 0
Jordan McLaughlin 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
11%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Jamal Shead TOR
8%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
6 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
9 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephon Castle SA 20.9 6.5 7.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 20.6 6.1 5.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.1 7.4 5.8
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.8 4.4 6.8
5 Harrison Barnes SA 15.0 4.0 1.9
6 Jamal Shead TOR 13.0 3.0 6.5
7 Keldon Johnson SA 13.0 6.1 2.4
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 12.3 4.2 1.9
9 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 12.1 7.9 5.1
10 Julian Champagnie SA 12.0 4.1 1.8
11 Jared Rhoden TOR 11.2 3.9 1.7
12 Chris Paul SA 11.1 3.8 5.1
13 Jamison Battle TOR 10.7 4.3 1.6
14 A.J. Lawson TOR 9.1 3.9 1.8
15 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 8.2 4.6 1.3
16 Colin Castleton TOR 8.0 6.8 1.7
17 Chris Boucher TOR 8.0 4.5 1.1
18 Malaki Branham SA 7.8 1.7 1.2
19 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.6 7.2 1.3
20 Blake Wesley SA 6.5 2.5 2.0
21 Garrett Temple TOR 5.2 2.2 1.8
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 4.0 1.5 1.7
23 David Duke Jr. SA 3.6 1.4 0.9
24 Charles Bassey SA 2.9 3.4 0.4
25 Harrison Ingram SA 2.7 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.