NBA games

OKC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
115–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC38262625115
NO19302328100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NO
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Wiggins S 37 28 7 7
Branden Carlson 39 26 10 2
Isaiah Joe S 35 17 6 1
Kenrich Williams S 37 17 12 2
Dillon Jones S 36 13 10 1
Ajay Mitchell 18 7 1 2
Alex Ducas 15 5 5 1
Adam Flagler 22 2 1 0
Jaylin Williams S 2 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Antonio Reeves S 39 20 6 0
Jamal Cain 28 18 4 1
Lester Quinones 34 17 5 6
Keion Brooks Jr. S 39 15 6 2
Jose Alvarado S 34 14 3 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 33 10 16 5
Kylor Kelley 15 3 5 1
Elfrid Payton S 18 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Aaron Wiggins makes two point shot (Kenrich Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Yves Missi NO
10%
2 Kylor Kelley NO
8%
3 Elfrid Payton NO
8%
4 Karlo Matkovic NO
8%
5 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
7%
6 Alex Caruso OKC
7%
7 Bruce Brown NO
7%
8 Dillon Jones OKC
7%
9 Kenrich Williams OKC
7%
10 Keion Brooks Jr. NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
15%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jose Alvarado NO 14.5 3.3 5.3
2 Antonio Reeves NO 13.5 2.6 1.9
3 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.8 4.1 2.2
4 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 11.9 4.6 1.3
5 Karlo Matkovic NO 11.6 6.0 1.7
6 Yves Missi NO 11.5 10.0 1.5
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.1 3.0 2.3
8 Bruce Brown NO 10.8 4.6 2.1
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.2 3.2 2.7
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 10.2 5.3 2.2
11 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.9 6.0 3.3
12 Ajay Mitchell OKC 8.8 3.0 1.9
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.7 4.1 2.4
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.7 3.7 2.1
15 Elfrid Payton NO 8.4 4.4 7.9
16 Jamal Cain NO 8.3 2.8 1.0
17 Lester Quinones NO 6.5 1.6 1.8
18 Branden Carlson OKC 4.4 2.4 0.7
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.0 1.6 0.8
20 Adam Flagler OKC 3.9 2.0 1.2
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 2.3 1.2
22 Kylor Kelley NO 3.6 3.3 0.7
23 Alex Ducas OKC 3.0 2.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.