NBA games

UTAH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
105–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH24252828105
MIN30204026116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIN
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 37 22 7 3
Oscar Tshiebwe 25 18 12 2
Kyle Filipowski S 29 15 3 3
Johnny Juzang S 28 15 2 1
Keyonte George S 48 14 5 7
Svi Mykhailiuk 39 14 4 4
Micah Potter 29 7 5 4
Jaden Springer S 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 43 6 5
Rudy Gobert S 38 19 18 0
Donte DiVincenzo 28 16 3 2
Naz Reid 25 11 8 2
Julius Randle S 33 10 10 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 33 9 5 7
Jaden McDaniels S 25 8 2 0
Jaylen Clark 3 0 0 0
Mike Conley S 15 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Filipowski · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kyle Filipowski makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
9%
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
4 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
7%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
8 Walker Kessler UTAH
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
10 Jaden Springer UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
9%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.2 5.4 5.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.8 7.4 5.5
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.9 2.6 4.4
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 19.7 16.6 1.8
5 Keyonte George UTAH 16.7 3.7 4.8
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH 15.3 3.9 6.2
7 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 15.2 9.8 2.2
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.5 3.8 2.9
9 Naz Reid MIN 14.0 5.2 2.9
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.9 4.1 3.0
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.4 4.1 4.1
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.0 5.4 1.5
13 Johnny Juzang UTAH 11.1 3.1 1.8
14 Mike Conley MIN 9.0 3.2 5.1
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.5 9.4 1.5
16 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 6.7 7.9 0.9
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.5 2.1 1.7
18 Joe Ingles MIN 6.0 1.4 1.8
19 Micah Potter UTAH 5.8 4.5 1.0
20 Jaden Springer UTAH 5.5 2.7 1.6
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.4 2.3 0.9
22 Josh Minott MIN 5.4 2.0 1.4
23 Luka Garza MIN 5.1 1.9 1.3
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.6 2.1 1.4
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.4 2.6 1.3
26 Leonard Miller MIN 4.2 2.5 1.2
27 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.1 1.9 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.