NBA games

DAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
97–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2826212297
MEM38293728132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MEM
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford S 19 20 7 1
Jaden Hardy 34 17 4 3
Max Christie S 39 14 5 2
Kai Jones 26 11 8 2
Naji Marshall S 28 11 3 2
Spencer Dinwiddie 36 8 2 7
Caleb Martin 21 6 3 0
Dwight Powell 16 6 0 0
Dante Exum S 14 4 2 3
Brandon Williams S 7 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lamar Stevens S 36 31 6 3
Marvin Bagley III S 31 25 12 3
Cam Spencer S 37 23 2 7
Jay Huff 28 22 6 2
Yuki Kawamura 28 12 5 5
Vince Williams Jr. S 24 12 11 5
GG Jackson S 34 5 4 3
John Konchar 21 2 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marvin Bagley III · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Marvin Bagley III makes alley oop dunk shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
26%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
22%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
19%
4 Zach Edey MEM
17%
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
14%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
0%
7 Jaden Hardy DAL
0%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
9 Max Christie DAL
0%
10 Kai Jones DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
20%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 P.J. Washington DAL 19.1 6.4 2.5
2 Naji Marshall DAL 17.6 4.8 3.9
3 Brandon Williams DAL 17.2 3.6 4.4
4 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 15.2 4.1 7.2
5 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.3 3.7 5.4
6 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 4.7 3.2
7 Zach Edey MEM 10.6 10.1 1.6
8 Max Christie DAL 10.5 3.4 1.7
9 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.3 2.0 1.7
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.9 7.5 1.7
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.8 7.1 1.6
12 Kai Jones DAL 8.6 6.2 1.0
13 Dante Exum DAL 8.0 1.9 1.9
14 Caleb Martin DAL 6.7 2.9 1.9
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.3 2.9 1.8
16 GG Jackson MEM 5.4 2.7 0.9
17 Jay Huff MEM 4.5 1.9 0.7
18 John Konchar MEM 3.6 2.9 0.9
19 Cam Spencer MEM 3.3 1.3 0.9
20 Dwight Powell DAL 3.2 2.2 1.1
21 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.1 2.2 0.6
22 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.0 1.9 0.6
23 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.7 1.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.