NBA games

DEN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
126–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN36293724126
HOU23291940111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home HOU
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 19 7 0
Aaron Gordon S 26 18 7 3
Nikola Jokic S 31 18 7 7
Russell Westbrook 23 17 0 6
Jamal Murray S 25 16 7 3
Christian Braun S 31 11 7 6
Peyton Watson 17 9 4 0
Julian Strawther 10 9 0 1
DeAndre Jordan 11 4 5 0
Hunter Tyson 4 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 26 15 6 6
Fred VanVleet S 27 15 0 3
Alperen Sengun S 24 14 5 4
Jock Landale 9 11 3 0
Cam Whitmore 17 10 2 1
Dillon Brooks S 22 8 1 1
Tari Eason 18 8 7 3
Nate Williams 12 7 4 2
Aaron Holiday 9 6 0 2
Jeff Green 12 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:22 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 6-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
11%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
6 Christian Braun DEN
7%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
5%
10 Jock Landale HOU
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.6 10.8 9.6
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.2 4.3 6.1
3 Jalen Green HOU 22.7 4.7 4.5
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.3 10.2 5.2
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.3 4.5 4.3
6 Christian Braun DEN 19.0 5.8 3.7
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.1 6.6 2.8
8 Amen Thompson HOU 16.9 7.8 5.2
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.9 4.7 5.6
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.5 3.2 2.0
11 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.8 2.9 4.8
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.9 6.1 2.0
13 Peyton Watson DEN 10.1 4.7 1.3
14 Reed Sheppard HOU 8.3 2.3 2.5
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.1 2.2 1.2
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 7.0 2.6 3.0
17 Jock Landale HOU 6.1 3.4 1.2
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.8 1.7 1.4
19 Julian Strawther DEN 5.7 2.0 1.1
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.6 6.2 1.5
21 Steven Adams HOU 5.5 6.8 0.9
22 Jeff Green HOU 5.1 2.1 1.1
23 David Roddy HOU 4.7 2.9 1.0
24 N'Faly Dante HOU 4.2 3.8 0.6
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.6 1.7 0.7
26 Dario Saric DEN 3.5 2.4 1.3
27 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.3 1.4 0.5
28 Nate Williams HOU 3.3 1.1 0.7
29 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.2 2.1 0.7
30 Trey Alexander DEN 1.9 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.