NBA games

DET @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
133–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET2530373110133
MIL4328272517140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley 19 23 1 2
Marcus Sasser S 43 18 1 10
Lindy Waters III 35 18 6 1
Simone Fontecchio 19 15 3 2
Bobi Klintman 23 15 3 6
Tolu Smith 22 14 8 0
Paul Reed 22 8 6 5
Ronald Holland II S 23 5 0 1
Ron Harper Jr. 17 4 7 2
Tobias Harris S 10 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pat Connaughton S 44 43 11 5
Kyle Kuzma S 12 22 2 2
Tyler Smith 30 20 4 0
Pete Nance S 43 19 6 5
Jamaree Bouyea S 47 15 3 7
Andre Jackson Jr. 36 9 3 4
AJ Green S 19 6 3 4
Chris Livingston 18 6 6 2
Stanley Umude 16 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamaree Bouyea · Layup (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Jamaree Bouyea makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
21%
2 Jalen Duren DET
20%
3 Tobias Harris DET
18%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
17%
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
12%
6 Ryan Rollins MIL
10%
7 Dennis Schroder DET
0%
8 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
9 Ronald Holland II DET
0%
10 Marcus Sasser DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
15%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.6 6.4 8.9
2 Jalen Duren DET 16.9 11.1 3.9
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.4 4.5 2.7
4 Bobby Portis MIL 16.4 9.9 2.7
5 Malik Beasley DET 14.8 2.9 1.9
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.5 2.7 2.1
7 Tobias Harris DET 14.1 5.2 2.6
8 Dennis Schroder DET 13.1 3.3 5.8
9 Ryan Rollins MIL 13.1 3.3 4.0
10 AJ Green MIL 8.6 3.1 1.7
11 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 3.9 1.6
12 Marcus Sasser DET 7.1 1.4 1.7
13 Simone Fontecchio DET 4.7 2.3 0.8
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.7 1.9 1.3
15 Paul Reed DET 3.9 3.2 0.8
16 Tolu Smith DET 3.0 2.2 0.7
17 Chris Livingston MIL 3.0 1.8 0.6
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.0 1.7 0.7
19 Daniss Jenkins DET 2.8 1.1 0.7
20 Lindy Waters III DET 2.7 0.9 0.7
21 Jamaree Bouyea MIL 2.6 1.3 0.8
22 Stanley Umude MIL 2.5 1.5 0.5
23 Pete Nance MIL 2.2 1.2 0.5
24 Tyler Smith MIL 2.0 0.8 0.4
25 Bobi Klintman DET 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.