NBA games

CHI @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
122–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29203736122
PHI29271927102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHI
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Huerter S 16 18 2 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 29 17 3 6
Patrick Williams 26 15 6 4
Zach Collins 15 13 4 2
Jalen Smith 16 12 10 2
Julian Phillips S 26 9 7 2
Nikola Vucevic S 17 8 8 0
Matas Buzelis S 14 7 3 1
Emanuel Miller 11 6 5 0
Dalen Terry 18 6 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lonnie Walker IV S 37 31 6 2
Jared Butler S 26 19 1 5
Adem Bona S 33 16 9 0
Marcus Bagley S 43 10 15 1
Quentin Grimes S 35 8 7 4
Jalen Hood-Schifino 27 7 2 3
Isaiah Mobley 17 6 4 5
Ricky Council IV 22 5 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lonnie Walker IV · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Lonnie Walker IV makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Quentin Grimes PHI
9%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
3 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
5 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
7 Adem Bona PHI
8%
8 Kevin Huerter CHI
7%
9 Lonnie Walker IV PHI
7%
10 Coby White CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
28%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 25.4 4.8 5.3
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 25.3 4.6 6.7
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 20.4 4.4 2.3
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 10.2 4.9
5 Jared Butler PHI 17.1 3.3 6.2
6 Justin Edwards PHI 16.1 4.5 2.3
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.9 6.0 2.4
8 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 15.8 3.4 3.8
9 Kevin Huerter CHI 15.7 3.6 4.8
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 15.2 6.5 2.7
11 Adem Bona PHI 14.8 8.9 1.8
12 Ricky Council IV PHI 10.7 5.4 2.4
13 Patrick Williams CHI 9.5 3.1 2.0
14 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 8.8 2.6 3.0
15 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.2 1.9 1.4
16 Marcus Bagley PHI 7.6 6.3 1.3
17 Jalen Smith CHI 6.8 5.9 1.3
18 Dalen Terry CHI 6.6 2.9 2.1
19 Zach Collins CHI 6.4 5.6 1.9
20 Jevon Carter CHI 5.7 1.8 1.5
21 Julian Phillips CHI 5.1 1.9 0.8
22 Jahmir Young CHI 3.6 1.4 0.9
23 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.5 1.5 0.7
24 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.3 1.8 0.6
25 Isaiah Mobley PHI 3.2 2.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.