NBA games

WSH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
119–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30362825119
MIA28322632118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIA
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan Vukcevic 39 28 11 5
Justin Champagnie S 39 27 4 2
Colby Jones 42 20 10 4
Bub Carrington S 41 15 7 9
AJ Johnson S 48 14 1 8
Alex Sarr S 16 10 8 4
Kyshawn George S 15 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 41 41 10 7
Keshad Johnson 28 17 8 1
Josh Christopher 28 17 3 3
Kel'el Ware S 20 13 4 1
Haywood Highsmith S 22 12 3 1
Kyle Anderson 28 6 6 4
Duncan Robinson S 20 6 2 2
Davion Mitchell S 20 4 4 8
Terry Rozier 34 2 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Davion Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Davion Mitchell makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
4 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
9 AJ Johnson WSH
6%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 26.7 5.1 5.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.6 8.2 4.5
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA 22.0 4.7 4.2
4 Bub Carrington WSH 16.5 4.4 6.1
5 Alex Sarr WSH 15.6 5.6 2.8
6 Davion Mitchell MIA 14.4 3.6 6.7
7 Justin Champagnie WSH 13.1 9.0 1.5
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.3 10.7 1.3
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.2 4.4 3.3
10 AJ Johnson WSH 11.2 2.9 2.7
11 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 11.2 4.2 1.4
12 Alec Burks MIA 10.4 2.8 1.6
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.4 2.2 1.8
14 Kyle Anderson MIA 10.3 4.8 3.1
15 Kyshawn George WSH 10.1 4.2 2.6
16 Colby Jones WSH 9.5 4.3 2.5
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.6 4.8 2.0
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.1 2.8 2.0
19 Marcus Smart WSH 7.0 2.0 2.2
20 Richaun Holmes WSH 6.4 5.6 0.9
21 Terry Rozier MIA 6.1 2.6 1.7
22 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.0 3.6 2.3
23 JT Thor WSH 5.0 3.6 0.7
24 Anthony Gill WSH 4.6 2.4 0.7
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.8 1.7 0.6
26 Josh Christopher MIA 2.8 1.4 0.6
27 Isaiah Stevens MIA 1.7 0.8 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.