NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
126–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
IND26182338417126
CLE3229242049118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quenton Jackson 40 21 6 2
Johnny Furphy 41 15 9 5
Tony Bradley 27 14 14 1
RayJ Dennis 29 13 5 6
Jarace Walker S 31 11 8 5
Aaron Nesmith S 14 10 4 1
Myles Turner S 13 9 1 1
Enrique Freeman 31 8 8 1
T.J. McConnell 19 8 0 1
Obi Toppin S 12 7 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylon Tyson S 46 31 7 4
Emoni Bates 42 25 6 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin S 47 24 12 2
Craig Porter Jr. S 43 20 5 5
Javonte Green S 20 8 3 2
Luke Travers 28 4 8 2
Chuma Okeke 22 3 4 2
Tristan Thompson 43 3 20 1
Jarrett Allen S 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Javonte Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Javonte Green makes 6-foot two point shot (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Aaron Nesmith IND
13%
3 T.J. McConnell IND
12%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Obi Toppin IND
10%
7 Thomas Bryant IND
9%
8 Jarace Walker IND
9%
9 Dean Wade CLE
8%
10 Enrique Freeman IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
41%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
14%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Myles Turner IND 15.4 7.2 1.6
2 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.8 9.2 2.0
3 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.7 4.5 1.2
4 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 4.0 2.0
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.2 4.3 4.4
6 Jarace Walker IND 9.1 3.8 1.8
7 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.5 3.4 1.2
8 T.J. McConnell IND 8.3 3.2 4.1
9 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 2.5 1.1
10 Thomas Bryant IND 5.5 3.1 0.6
11 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.3 2.0 1.2
12 Chuma Okeke CLE 5.2 3.7 1.1
13 Tony Bradley IND 4.6 2.9 0.6
14 Quenton Jackson IND 4.3 1.5 1.6
15 Johnny Furphy IND 3.6 2.4 0.7
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.5 1.6 0.3
17 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.4 1.7 0.8
18 RayJ Dennis IND 3.1 1.4 0.8
19 Emoni Bates CLE 3.0 0.6 0.5
20 Enrique Freeman IND 2.9 1.7 0.5
21 Javonte Green CLE 2.9 2.3 0.7
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.9 3.0 0.6
23 James Johnson IND 2.3 1.2 0.6
24 Luke Travers CLE 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.