Sunday, April 13, 2025

NY @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final

113–105

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NY	38	24	27	24	113
BKN	37	29	17	22	105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (NY) games this season

NY away

home BKN

64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Landry Shamet	40	29	2	0	9/17	7/13	12
Cameron Payne S	34	21	2	7	6/13	3/7	17
Precious Achiuwa S	33	18	9	2	8/18	0/0	19
Miles McBride S	30	17	4	8	6/14	3/9	10
P.J. Tucker S	29	6	2	0	2/5	2/4	-18
Tyler Kolek	14	5	3	4	1/5	1/4	-9
Delon Wright	21	5	2	3	2/6	0/3	-2
MarJon Beauchamp	5	4	4	1	1/1	0/0	-4
Kevin McCullar Jr.	22	4	8	2	1/4	0/1	15
Pacome Dadiet	11	4	4	0	1/3	0/1	-3

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Trendon Watford S	33	20	7	4	8/12	1/2	2
Tyrese Martin S	31	20	7	1	8/14	2/6	-3
Jalen Wilson S	38	18	4	4	6/11	5/8	-4
Keon Johnson S	37	14	9	4	5/13	1/8	-12
Nic Claxton S	22	12	2	0	5/6	0/0	-2
Drew Timme	31	11	8	2	4/11	1/6	-3
Tyson Etienne	17	5	0	1	1/3	1/3	-7
Dariq Whitehead	10	3	1	0	1/3	1/2	-4
Tosan Evbuomwan	20	2	4	5	0/1	0/0	-7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Cameron Payne · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1

"Cameron Payne makes 5-foot two point shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Mikal Bridges NY

15%

2 Keon Johnson BKN

15%

3 Nic Claxton BKN

13%

4 Ziaire Williams BKN

12%

5 Drew Timme BKN

12%

6 Jalen Wilson BKN

11%

7 Reece Beekman BKN

11%

8 Trendon Watford BKN

10%

9 Miles McBride NY

10 Precious Achiuwa NY

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

20%

Dunk

Free Throw

Jumper

39%

Layup

27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Mikal Bridges	NY	20.0	3.6	6.1	—	—	—
2	Keon Johnson	BKN	14.2	3.7	3.6	14	9	4
3	Drew Timme	BKN	13.2	6.9	2.4	11	8	2
4	Nic Claxton	BKN	12.3	7.6	2.2	12	2	0
5	Miles McBride	NY	12.2	3.1	4.0	17	4	8
6	Trendon Watford	BKN	12.1	4.3	3.5	20	7	4
7	Jalen Wilson	BKN	10.7	4.5	1.7	18	4	4
8	Ziaire Williams	BKN	9.9	3.4	1.3	—	—	—
9	Tyrese Martin	BKN	9.6	3.5	3.1	20	7	1
10	Landry Shamet	NY	9.0	2.4	1.3	29	2	0
11	Tosan Evbuomwan	BKN	8.6	4.2	2.0	2	4	5
12	Tyson Etienne	BKN	8.5	1.9	1.8	5	0	1
13	Precious Achiuwa	NY	6.9	5.4	1.2	18	9	2
14	Cameron Payne	NY	6.9	2.2	3.3	21	2	7
15	Dariq Whitehead	BKN	6.6	2.2	1.3	3	1	0
16	Maxwell Lewis	BKN	6.6	3.3	1.2	—	—	—
17	Delon Wright	NY	6.3	2.1	2.2	5	2	3
18	Reece Beekman	BKN	6.3	2.2	2.5	—	—	—
19	Tyler Kolek	NY	3.0	1.0	4.0	5	3	4
20	MarJon Beauchamp	NY	2.7	1.1	0.5	4	4	1
21	Kevin McCullar Jr.	NY	1.8	0.7	0.3	4	8	2
22	Anton Watson	NY	1.6	0.9	0.4	0	0	0
23	Pacome Dadiet	NY	1.5	0.5	0.3	4	4	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.