NBA games

CHA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
86–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1528251886
BOS3321152493

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BOS
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jusuf Nurkic S 29 14 9 2
Josh Okogie S 18 14 2 2
Jaylen Sims 20 12 1 2
DaQuan Jeffries S 28 11 4 0
Moussa Diabate 25 10 9 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 15 8 3 2
Damion Baugh 26 6 7 6
Tidjane Salaun S 36 5 5 2
Taj Gibson 11 4 6 2
KJ Simpson S 32 2 5 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 39 34 7 7
Sam Hauser S 29 15 2 1
Luke Kornet S 30 11 8 2
Jordan Walsh 21 10 8 1
JD Davison 17 9 1 4
Baylor Scheierman S 36 7 7 2
Drew Peterson 12 4 3 0
Neemias Queta 26 2 6 4
Miles Norris 12 1 4 0
Torrey Craig S 19 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
37%
2 KJ Simpson CHA
17%
3 Jrue Holiday BOS
15%
4 Josh Okogie CHA
14%
5 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
14%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
7 Tidjane Salaun CHA
0%
8 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
0%
9 Taj Gibson CHA
0%
10 Moussa Diabate CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.9 7.7 7.2
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.5 4.5 4.3
3 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.7 4.1 4.7
4 Sam Hauser BOS 12.0 3.9 1.5
5 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 11.0 5.9 2.9
6 KJ Simpson CHA 10.9 3.5 3.6
7 Luke Kornet BOS 10.1 7.1 1.9
8 Tidjane Salaun CHA 9.5 6.0 1.8
9 Seth Curry CHA 8.5 2.3 1.4
10 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 8.1 3.4 1.5
11 Josh Okogie CHA 7.5 2.4 1.3
12 Damion Baugh CHA 7.2 3.1 3.1
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.7 2.9 1.9
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.5 4.7 0.5
15 Jaylen Sims CHA 5.9 1.6 1.7
16 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 5.8 2.8 1.5
17 Neemias Queta BOS 5.0 3.3 0.9
18 Torrey Craig BOS 4.4 3.6 1.0
19 Miles Norris BOS 4.2 2.1 0.8
20 JD Davison BOS 3.9 1.6 1.0
21 Drew Peterson BOS 3.5 1.5 0.9
22 Taj Gibson CHA 3.1 2.4 0.5
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.0 1.6 0.8
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.6 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.