NBA games

ORL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
105–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24223821105
ATL31273425117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home ATL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black S 37 20 10 2
Jett Howard 33 16 1 1
Tristan da Silva S 37 14 7 6
Caleb Houstan 35 13 5 3
Jonathan Isaac S 19 12 10 2
Gary Harris 18 12 1 1
Goga Bitadze 26 10 6 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 17 4 3 2
Cole Anthony 13 2 0 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 5 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terance Mann S 30 19 3 4
Jacob Toppin 27 17 4 2
Daeqwon Plowden 31 17 4 2
Keaton Wallace S 37 15 11 15
Dominick Barlow S 34 15 5 1
Vit Krejci 28 13 7 7
Garrison Mathews 37 12 4 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 10 6 2 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 7 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Terance Mann makes two point shot (Keaton Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
17%
2 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
12%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
4 Tristan da Silva ORL
10%
5 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
9%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
8 Gary Harris ORL
8%
9 Caleb Houstan ORL
8%
10 Cory Joseph ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.8 10.0 4.3
2 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.9 3.4 1.7
3 Anthony Black ORL 12.8 4.1 3.4
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.2 6.6 1.5
5 Cole Anthony ORL 10.0 3.5 2.7
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.5 3.0 1.9
7 Terance Mann ATL 9.3 3.1 1.5
8 Caleb Houstan ORL 7.3 2.6 1.3
9 Vit Krejci ATL 7.3 2.7 1.4
10 Cory Joseph ORL 6.6 3.0 2.5
11 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.3 5.8 1.0
12 Clint Capela ATL 5.8 5.9 0.8
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.3 2.3 0.9
14 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.9 2.0 1.5
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 4.9 1.6
16 Gary Harris ORL 4.1 1.9 1.0
17 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.6 0.7
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.0 3.4 0.8
19 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.9 2.9 0.7
20 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 3.9 1.6 0.5
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.6 1.3 1.6
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.2 1.3 0.4
23 Jacob Toppin ATL 2.0 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.