NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
109–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU32243122109
LAL38402933140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Whitmore S 37 34 8 1
Reed Sheppard S 41 14 3 5
Nate Williams 26 12 2 1
Aaron Holiday 24 11 2 4
David Roddy 24 9 3 2
Jock Landale S 25 8 5 0
N'Faly Dante 14 8 6 1
Jalen Green S 15 7 4 3
Jeff Green S 22 6 3 5
Jack McVeigh 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 31 39 8 7
Austin Reaves S 33 23 7 6
Dorian Finney-Smith 30 18 0 0
Rui Hachimura S 32 16 5 1
LeBron James S 22 14 4 8
Jarred Vanderbilt 19 8 4 0
Jaxson Hayes S 12 7 1 0
Dalton Knecht 4 5 1 0
Jordan Goodwin 23 3 6 3
Bronny James 4 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Reed Sheppard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeff Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
16%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
7 Jock Landale HOU
8%
8 Tari Eason HOU
8%
9 Cam Whitmore HOU
7%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 27.0 6.5 6.9
2 LeBron James LAL 24.3 5.7 6.7
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.3 4.3 4.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 21.9 4.7 4.2
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.6 7.7 1.5
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.2 3.7 1.3
7 Tari Eason HOU 10.9 6.1 1.9
8 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.6 3.8 1.9
9 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.4 1.8 1.1
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 6.7 1.9 1.8
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.2 5.3 0.9
12 Jock Landale HOU 5.8 3.1 1.2
13 Steven Adams HOU 5.4 6.7 0.9
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.5 1.1
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.1 1.6 1.0
16 Jeff Green HOU 4.5 1.9 0.8
17 Bronny James LAL 4.5 1.2 1.0
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 2.5 1.0
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 5.0 1.0
20 N'Faly Dante HOU 3.8 3.4 0.5
21 Jordan Goodwin LAL 3.8 2.5 1.1
22 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.7 1.3 0.7
23 David Roddy HOU 3.6 3.0 0.9
24 Jack McVeigh HOU 3.5 1.3 0.6
25 Shake Milton LAL 3.5 1.5 1.1
26 Markieff Morris LAL 2.9 1.0 0.9
27 Nate Williams HOU 2.8 1.0 0.6
28 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.8 2.2 0.5
29 Alex Len LAL 1.6 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.