NBA games

LAC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
101–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24262526101
SAC29202130100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SAC
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 42 28 7 3
James Harden S 43 23 11 10
Ivica Zubac S 36 17 11 0
Norman Powell S 36 16 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 25 11 1 0
Kris Dunn S 22 4 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 2 2 2
Drew Eubanks 2 0 0 1
Ben Simmons 12 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 41 26 4 5
Domantas Sabonis S 39 19 16 5
DeMar DeRozan S 40 16 3 8
Trey Lyles 30 9 7 0
Jonas Valanciunas 10 9 3 1
Keegan Murray S 32 9 8 1
Devin Carter 16 7 1 2
Keon Ellis S 32 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"James Harden makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
6 Norman Powell LAC
8%
7 James Harden LAC
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.6 7.2 3.9
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.5 4.3 5.8
3 James Harden LAC 24.1 4.8 8.8
4 Zach LaVine SAC 23.2 3.4 3.9
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.0 11.7 5.6
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.5 11.9 3.9
7 Norman Powell LAC 16.0 2.9 2.5
8 Keegan Murray SAC 11.8 5.4 1.4
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.3 3.0 3.2
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.4 3.6 1.2
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.9 3.4 1.9
12 Keon Ellis SAC 8.7 3.4 1.9
13 Trey Lyles SAC 6.9 4.1 1.4
14 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 4.4 4.0 0.8
15 Devin Carter SAC 4.0 1.6 1.0
16 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.6 3.2 0.6
17 Ben Simmons LAC 3.6 3.5 2.0
18 Doug McDermott SAC 3.6 1.0 0.6
19 Trentyn Flowers LAC 2.8 1.3 0.5
20 Isaac Jones SAC 2.7 1.3 0.5
21 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 1.3 0.7
22 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.4 0.7
23 Markelle Fultz SAC 2.5 0.8 1.0
24 Jordan Miller LAC 2.4 1.3 0.7
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 2.4 1.2 0.4
26 Jae Crowder SAC 2.4 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.