NBA games

GS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
103–86
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26242726103
POR2017202986

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home POR
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 28 24 5 7
Buddy Hield 23 16 4 0
Stephen Curry S 27 14 5 5
Jonathan Kuminga 17 10 5 0
Quinten Post 16 10 1 1
Brandin Podziemski S 30 10 7 3
Moses Moody S 23 9 2 1
Draymond Green S 29 3 7 5
Braxton Key 3 2 1 0
Gary Payton II 14 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Walker 20 19 6 1
Rayan Rupert 25 15 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 27 14 15 1
Matisse Thybulle S 22 11 4 0
Toumani Camara S 33 10 4 3
Kris Murray S 36 7 6 4
Justin Minaya 15 4 0 0
Dalano Banton S 31 3 4 6
Sidy Cissoko 25 3 8 5
Duop Reath 6 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
20%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
3 Deni Avdija POR
8%
4 Jerami Grant POR
7%
5 Moses Moody GS
7%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Dalano Banton POR
7%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
10 Draymond Green GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
37%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 25.5 10.4 5.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.4 5.0 6.0
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.9 6.3 4.0
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.7 4.7 5.0
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 19.3 5.7 4.3
6 Anfernee Simons POR 19.0 2.9 3.9
7 Toumani Camara POR 14.1 4.8 2.5
8 Scoot Henderson POR 12.9 3.0 4.2
9 Jerami Grant POR 12.7 4.1 2.2
10 Dalano Banton POR 12.3 3.2 3.4
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.9 4.1 2.3
12 Moses Moody GS 10.8 3.4 1.8
13 Draymond Green GS 10.1 5.8 5.2
14 Buddy Hield GS 8.8 3.1 1.3
15 Gary Payton II GS 8.6 3.2 1.2
16 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 8.8 1.6
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.5 3.1 2.2
18 Quinten Post GS 7.0 2.4 1.1
19 Duop Reath POR 6.8 3.3 0.9
20 Jabari Walker POR 5.6 2.7 0.9
21 Kris Murray POR 4.8 2.4 1.1
22 Gui Santos GS 4.5 2.7 1.4
23 Rayan Rupert POR 4.0 1.5 0.7
24 Kevon Looney GS 3.9 4.5 1.0
25 Braxton Key GS 3.6 1.6 0.6
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.5 2.4 0.7
27 Pat Spencer GS 2.8 1.1 1.0
28 Kevin Knox II GS 2.7 1.4 0.5
29 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.5 1.0 0.5
30 Justin Minaya POR 2.2 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.