NBA games

SA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
98–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA3314173498
PHX28253925117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHX
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Champagnie S 30 23 5 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 25 19 9 2
Stephon Castle S 31 16 4 10
Malaki Branham 23 15 2 2
David Duke Jr. 12 8 1 1
Blake Wesley 31 7 3 4
Bismack Biyombo S 22 6 8 1
Harrison Ingram 13 2 2 1
Harrison Barnes S 15 2 5 1
Jordan McLaughlin 25 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Dunn S 34 26 11 1
Bradley Beal S 28 21 4 6
Devin Booker S 28 18 3 5
Grayson Allen S 29 15 6 6
Collin Gillespie 22 13 7 2
Mason Plumlee 15 7 6 1
Oso Ighodaro S 33 6 5 2
Tyus Jones 16 6 3 2
Jalen Bridges 1 3 0 0
Royce O'Neale 21 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point shot (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Stephon Castle SA
14%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
4 Oso Ighodaro PHX
11%
5 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
6 Chris Paul SA
10%
7 Bismack Biyombo SA
10%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
9%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
40%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.5 4.5 8.9
2 Stephon Castle SA 21.4 6.1 6.8
3 Harrison Barnes SA 14.9 3.6 2.2
4 Bradley Beal PHX 13.6 3.1 4.1
5 Chris Paul SA 11.0 3.6 5.7
6 Julian Champagnie SA 10.2 4.0 1.7
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.2 3.5 3.8
8 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.5 4.8 1.4
9 Tyus Jones PHX 9.3 2.8 3.3
10 Grayson Allen PHX 9.0 2.5 1.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.2 3.5 2.0
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 7.3 3.7 1.3
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.1 5.1 1.7
14 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.4 6.5 1.2
15 Malaki Branham SA 5.8 1.4 1.1
16 Blake Wesley SA 5.6 2.3 1.8
17 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.3 4.8 1.3
18 Cody Martin PHX 5.2 3.2 1.1
19 Monte Morris PHX 4.9 1.3 1.2
20 Damion Lee PHX 4.4 1.4 0.8
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 4.0 1.3 1.7
22 Bol Bol PHX 4.0 1.6 0.7
23 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.6 1.5 1.2
24 Charles Bassey SA 3.2 3.5 0.4
25 David Duke Jr. SA 2.9 1.3 0.8
26 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.9 1.4 0.8
27 Harrison Ingram SA 2.6 2.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.