NBA games

MEM @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
109–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM35243614109
DEN28253925117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DEN
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 34 24 6 1
Ja Morant S 34 21 2 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 18 1 2
Luke Kennard 23 12 6 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. 31 11 1 7
Zach Edey S 33 8 16 1
Santi Aldama 25 8 3 4
John Konchar 7 5 3 0
Vince Williams Jr. S 15 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 41 33 5 0
Nikola Jokic S 41 26 16 13
Jamal Murray S 32 15 5 7
Russell Westbrook 27 14 3 4
Christian Braun S 34 12 2 5
Peyton Watson 20 8 5 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 7 12 0
DeAndre Jordan 7 2 2 0
Jalen Pickett 10 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
18%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
9%
5 Christian Braun DEN
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
7%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
9 Zach Edey MEM
7%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
27%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 33.0 12.3 11.5
2 Ja Morant MEM 29.9 4.6 7.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.8 3.8 5.9
4 Desmond Bane MEM 20.9 4.8 5.6
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.4 5.5 2.0
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 20.2 4.6 4.9
7 Christian Braun DEN 19.4 5.9 3.6
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.1 6.5 3.4
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.8 4.8 6.7
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.7 3.8 5.1
11 Santi Aldama MEM 12.5 5.1 3.5
12 Peyton Watson DEN 10.9 4.6 1.4
13 Zach Edey MEM 10.3 9.9 1.5
14 Jalen Pickett DEN 7.7 2.5 3.2
15 Julian Strawther DEN 6.5 2.2 1.2
16 Luke Kennard MEM 6.3 2.5 2.4
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.1 2.9 1.8
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 6.1 6.6 1.6
19 GG Jackson MEM 5.4 2.7 0.8
20 Jay Huff MEM 4.5 2.0 0.7
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.9 1.8 0.8
22 Dario Saric DEN 3.7 2.5 1.3
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.7 1.5 0.6
24 John Konchar MEM 3.5 2.8 0.9
25 Cam Spencer MEM 3.3 1.4 0.9
26 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.1 2.2 0.6
27 Marvin Bagley III MEM 2.9 2.0 0.5
28 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.8 1.2 0.9
29 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.4 2.2 0.8
30 Trey Alexander DEN 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.