NBA games

BKN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
91117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN1636211891
MIN28363419117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIN
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Johnson S 24 20 5 6
Trendon Watford S 32 15 8 4
Jalen Wilson S 35 14 9 3
Drew Timme S 40 11 10 2
Reece Beekman S 32 11 2 3
Tosan Evbuomwan 22 7 3 3
Dariq Whitehead 21 6 2 1
Tyrese Martin 16 4 0 2
Tyson Etienne 11 3 1 0
Maxwell Lewis 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rudy Gobert S 33 35 11 1
Julius Randle S 30 21 4 3
Jaden McDaniels S 28 11 3 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 10 2 4
Anthony Edwards S 31 9 4 5
Donte DiVincenzo 26 8 6 4
Josh Minott 3 7 1 0
Naz Reid 26 7 5 2
Jaylen Clark 17 7 5 1
Mike Conley S 14 2 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trendon Watford · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:27 Q1
"Trendon Watford makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
14%
2 Julius Randle MIN
13%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Ziaire Williams BKN
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Keon Johnson BKN
9%
7 Trendon Watford BKN
8%
8 Reece Beekman BKN
8%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
14%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.2 4.9
2 Julius Randle MIN 21.2 6.7 5.6
3 Rudy Gobert MIN 16.3 12.5 2.3
4 Naz Reid MIN 14.0 4.8 2.9
5 Drew Timme BKN 13.3 6.5 2.5
6 Keon Johnson BKN 13.0 3.3 3.2
7 Trendon Watford BKN 12.9 4.0 3.4
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.9 3.6 3.1
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.2 3.8 3.4
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.6 2.9 5.0
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 4.6 1.7
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.0 3.4 1.3
13 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 9.7 4.3 1.7
14 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.5 3.4 3.6
15 Tyson Etienne BKN 9.4 2.0 2.1
16 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.7 3.4 1.5
17 Dariq Whitehead BKN 7.3 2.1 1.2
18 Maxwell Lewis BKN 6.9 3.3 1.3
19 Noah Clowney BKN 6.0 2.8 0.9
20 Reece Beekman BKN 4.7 2.2 2.2
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.4 1.7 0.9
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.9 1.5 0.8
23 Luka Garza MIN 3.4 0.9 0.5
24 Bones Hyland MIN 3.4 0.9 1.1
25 Leonard Miller MIN 3.1 1.7 0.6
26 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.8 1.2 0.8
27 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.0 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.