NBA games

TOR @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
102–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25132935102
DAL35313028124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DAL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 31 26 9 3
Ochai Agbaji S 36 24 6 0
A.J. Lawson 32 12 10 2
Garrett Temple 33 12 5 3
Jamison Battle S 37 11 5 1
Jamal Shead S 33 9 0 5
Jonathan Mogbo S 38 8 8 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 30 23 13 10
Max Christie 30 17 6 2
Brandon Williams 22 17 1 3
P.J. Washington S 27 14 8 4
Daniel Gafford 20 12 7 1
Dereck Lively II S 18 10 11 0
Caleb Martin 21 8 4 3
Naji Marshall S 28 7 2 5
Klay Thompson S 19 7 1 2
Dante Exum 14 6 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Naji Marshall · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:19 Q1
"Naji Marshall makes 25-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
10%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
7 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
8%
8 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
7%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
10 Jamal Shead TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
19%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis DAL 22.7 11.3 3.6
2 RJ Barrett TOR 19.7 6.0 5.1
3 P.J. Washington DAL 18.8 6.3 2.3
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.7 4.2 6.6
5 Naji Marshall DAL 18.1 5.9 4.0
6 Brandon Williams DAL 18.1 3.4 4.2
7 Scottie Barnes TOR 17.9 6.6 5.5
8 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 13.4 3.9 2.7
9 Jamal Shead TOR 12.5 3.0 6.1
10 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 11.8 7.4 4.2
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.3 8.4 1.8
12 Klay Thompson DAL 11.1 2.9 1.5
13 Jared Rhoden TOR 10.7 3.7 1.6
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.4 3.6 1.5
15 Max Christie DAL 9.5 3.4 1.7
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.5 1.9 1.5
17 Jamison Battle TOR 9.4 3.6 1.4
18 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.1 6.9 1.9
19 Chris Boucher TOR 7.2 4.4 1.0
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 7.0 3.0 1.4
21 Caleb Martin DAL 6.1 2.9 1.7
22 Dante Exum DAL 5.9 1.3 1.5
23 Garrett Temple TOR 4.2 1.7 1.7
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.4 2.1 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.