NBA games

MIA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
153–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA35363943153
NO24301832104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home NO
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 22 23 12 4
Tyler Herro S 22 22 4 4
Duncan Robinson 19 21 2 0
Alec Burks S 22 12 4 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 14 11 5 5
Davion Mitchell 22 11 2 3
Haywood Highsmith 20 10 5 3
Andrew Wiggins S 24 10 5 3
Keshad Johnson 7 10 2 0
Kel'el Ware S 26 10 11 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Cain 35 25 7 3
Antonio Reeves 34 19 5 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 33 14 7 2
Keion Brooks Jr. S 36 14 3 1
Jose Alvarado S 23 14 3 0
Lester Quinones 29 9 1 3
Kylor Kelley S 21 5 6 1
Elfrid Payton S 29 4 10 13

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alec Burks · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Alec Burks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
3 Yves Missi NO
9%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
5 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
6 Elfrid Payton NO
7%
7 Karlo Matkovic NO
7%
8 Antonio Reeves NO
6%
9 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
6%
10 Keion Brooks Jr. NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.4 4.5 5.5
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA 22.3 4.4 4.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.3 7.3 4.5
4 Davion Mitchell MIA 14.4 3.5 6.5
5 Jose Alvarado NO 13.0 3.1 5.1
6 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.9 10.1 1.4
7 Antonio Reeves NO 11.7 2.2 1.6
8 Karlo Matkovic NO 11.2 6.0 1.6
9 Yves Missi NO 11.1 9.8 1.5
10 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 10.9 4.5 1.3
11 Bruce Brown NO 10.5 4.6 2.1
12 Alec Burks MIA 9.2 2.3 1.4
13 Kyle Anderson MIA 9.1 4.0 2.5
14 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 9.1 4.6 1.8
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.9 2.0 1.7
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 4.6 1.9
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.9 2.8 2.0
18 Elfrid Payton NO 6.7 3.7 7.9
19 Jamal Cain NO 6.1 2.2 0.7
20 Lester Quinones NO 5.5 1.5 1.4
21 Terry Rozier MIA 5.4 2.2 1.4
22 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 4.7 3.1 1.9
23 Kylor Kelley NO 3.3 2.8 0.6
24 Josh Christopher MIA 1.8 0.6 0.5
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 1.6 1.0 0.4
26 Isaiah Stevens MIA 1.4 0.7 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.