NBA games

WSH @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
89–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2419252189
CHI26323823119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHI
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Justin Champagnie S 38 22 14 1
Bub Carrington S 35 18 5 11
Tristan Vukcevic 26 17 3 2
Kyshawn George S 24 11 2 3
AJ Johnson S 34 8 3 1
Alex Sarr S 26 7 3 3
Colby Jones 32 3 7 5
JT Thor 24 3 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Phillips S 28 23 9 1
Matas Buzelis S 32 20 6 4
Coby White S 28 16 9 4
Nikola Vucevic S 28 15 12 8
Talen Horton-Tucker 24 12 1 4
Zach Collins 20 8 4 3
Jevon Carter 13 8 3 1
Kevin Huerter S 31 7 4 6
Patrick Williams 23 5 3 1
Jahmir Young 3 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Coby White makes 16-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
4 Coby White CHI
8%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
6 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
7 Kevin Huerter CHI
7%
8 AJ Johnson WSH
6%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
6%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
26%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 26.5 4.4 5.5
2 Josh Giddey CHI 22.6 12.1 10.7
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.2 10.7 5.0
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.0 6.0 3.0
5 Bub Carrington WSH 16.3 5.1 6.2
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.2 5.7 2.3
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 16.1 3.6 4.4
8 AJ Johnson WSH 12.9 3.2 3.1
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.8 4.5 3.6
10 Justin Champagnie WSH 12.1 8.1 1.6
11 Kyshawn George WSH 12.1 4.5 2.8
12 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 12.0 4.3 1.6
13 Patrick Williams CHI 9.8 3.3 2.2
14 Colby Jones WSH 9.5 3.8 2.3
15 Marcus Smart WSH 7.8 2.2 2.5
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.8 1.9 1.1
17 Jalen Smith CHI 7.6 6.1 1.5
18 Richaun Holmes WSH 7.1 5.9 1.1
19 Zach Collins CHI 6.2 5.4 2.0
20 Anthony Gill WSH 5.5 2.7 1.0
21 JT Thor WSH 5.4 3.7 0.9
22 Jevon Carter CHI 4.6 1.4 1.5
23 Julian Phillips CHI 3.7 1.7 0.7
24 Jahmir Young CHI 3.1 1.2 1.0
25 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.0 1.2 0.7
26 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.0 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.