NBA games

CLE @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
108–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE24262830108
NY39232416102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NY
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 26 2 13
Max Strus S 35 19 5 3
Evan Mobley S 35 16 10 2
Isaac Okoro 27 15 5 1
Craig Porter Jr. 21 11 5 1
Jarrett Allen S 33 11 13 2
Jaylon Tyson 22 7 5 1
Javonte Green 7 2 2 0
Dean Wade S 27 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 27 1 2
Mikal Bridges S 36 17 2 8
OG Anunoby S 35 15 4 4
Landry Shamet 21 15 3 0
Miles McBride 18 12 1 1
Josh Hart S 34 8 11 5
Mitchell Robinson S 33 8 7 2
Cameron Payne 12 0 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 15 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Precious Achiuwa NY
9%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
19%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.7 3.9 6.6
2 OG Anunoby NY 23.6 5.0 3.2
3 Mikal Bridges NY 20.0 3.7 5.2
4 Darius Garland CLE 19.6 4.0 6.2
5 Evan Mobley CLE 18.8 9.1 4.0
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.9 7.9 2.0
7 Josh Hart NY 13.9 8.6 6.0
8 Miles McBride NY 11.8 3.1 4.4
9 Max Strus CLE 9.7 3.5 3.1
10 Landry Shamet NY 8.5 2.1 1.2
11 Cameron Payne NY 7.4 2.3 3.6
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.2 2.8 1.1
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.0 5.2 1.1
14 Delon Wright NY 6.3 2.1 2.1
15 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 2.5 1.0
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.5 6.9 0.8
17 Chuma Okeke CLE 5.3 3.6 1.2
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.2 1.5 1.0
19 Emoni Bates CLE 3.2 0.6 0.6
20 Javonte Green CLE 2.9 1.9 0.6
21 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 1.0 3.8
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 2.8 0.5
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 2.6 1.3 0.2
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.6 1.3 0.7
25 Luke Travers CLE 1.7 1.0 0.5
26 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.7 0.8 0.3
27 Anton Watson NY 1.4 0.9 0.4
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.