NBA games

CHA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
94–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2528221994
BOS25293739130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BOS
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Seth Curry 19 17 2 0
Jusuf Nurkic 19 14 6 6
KJ Simpson S 34 11 8 2
Mark Williams S 24 10 12 2
Josh Okogie S 22 10 5 2
Nick Smith Jr. S 17 9 4 4
DaQuan Jeffries S 31 7 1 1
Tidjane Salaun 24 5 5 2
Damion Baugh 19 5 4 3
Jaylen Sims 16 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 22 22 3 3
Sam Hauser 22 20 5 1
Derrick White S 34 19 3 7
Jayson Tatum S 32 16 8 8
Al Horford S 28 13 11 0
Kristaps Porzingis S 18 11 5 2
Luke Kornet 18 8 4 2
Neemias Queta 12 7 1 1
Baylor Scheierman 10 5 3 2
Drew Peterson 2 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Mark Williams makes driving dunk (Josh Okogie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
3 Mark Williams CHA
9%
4 Luke Kornet BOS
7%
5 KJ Simpson CHA
6%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
7 Al Horford BOS
5%
8 Tidjane Salaun CHA
5%
9 Torrey Craig BOS
5%
10 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 7.4 6.9
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.5 6.3 2.9
3 Derrick White BOS 16.2 5.4 6.6
4 Mark Williams CHA 15.4 10.1 3.1
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.0 4.3 4.2
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.1 4.4 5.2
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.0 2.6 3.7
8 Al Horford BOS 12.9 7.4 3.4
9 Sam Hauser BOS 11.1 3.5 1.4
10 KJ Simpson CHA 10.3 3.0 3.7
11 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 9.9 5.9 2.6
12 Luke Kornet BOS 9.7 7.3 1.7
13 Tidjane Salaun CHA 9.4 5.9 1.7
14 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 7.8 3.3 1.5
15 Seth Curry CHA 7.5 2.0 1.6
16 Damion Baugh CHA 7.5 3.1 3.4
17 Josh Okogie CHA 7.1 2.2 1.3
18 Jaylen Sims CHA 6.3 1.8 2.1
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.1 2.7 1.6
20 Marcus Garrett CHA 5.9 1.3 2.5
21 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 5.8 3.0 1.4
22 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 3.6 0.8
23 Torrey Craig BOS 4.4 3.3 0.8
24 JD Davison BOS 3.5 1.4 0.9
25 Drew Peterson BOS 3.1 1.3 0.8
26 Taj Gibson CHA 3.0 2.2 0.5
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.8 0.8
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.