NBA games

ORL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
129–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29433720129
IND29202739115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home IND
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trevelin Queen 30 25 5 4
Anthony Black 31 21 6 7
Jett Howard 30 17 0 1
Tristan da Silva S 34 14 3 2
Jonathan Isaac 19 12 4 4
Goga Bitadze S 23 11 7 3
Gary Harris S 17 10 2 0
Caleb Houstan S 30 10 5 2
Cole Anthony 20 7 2 4
Cory Joseph S 6 2 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 41 20 8 3
Johnny Furphy 32 17 6 3
Jarace Walker S 34 15 8 3
Quenton Jackson 20 13 1 3
T.J. McConnell S 21 12 1 3
Tony Bradley 24 10 9 2
Thomas Bryant S 20 10 2 1
RayJ Dennis 17 10 1 3
Obi Toppin S 21 4 5 3
Enrique Freeman 11 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Goga Bitadze · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Goga Bitadze makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Caleb Houstan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
19%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
15%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
15%
4 Myles Turner IND
14%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
13%
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
12%
7 Cory Joseph ORL
10%
8 Obi Toppin IND
0%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
0%
10 Goga Bitadze ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 3.7 9.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 16.7 5.8 3.2
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.7 5.6 2.1
4 Myles Turner IND 14.8 7.9 1.5
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.0 6.9 1.4
6 Obi Toppin IND 11.4 3.8 1.9
7 Anthony Black ORL 11.3 4.1 3.0
8 Cole Anthony ORL 10.2 4.1 2.5
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.2 4.2 4.3
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.5 3.2 1.8
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 3.4 4.1
12 Jarace Walker IND 7.5 3.1 1.6
13 Cory Joseph ORL 6.8 3.2 2.0
14 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.7 2.6 1.2
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.1 5.0 1.2
16 Thomas Bryant IND 4.8 2.8 0.5
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.3 2.1 0.8
18 Gary Harris ORL 3.6 1.9 0.9
19 Jett Howard ORL 3.6 1.5 0.7
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.4 2.0 0.6
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.7 3.0 0.6
22 Tony Bradley IND 2.7 1.6 0.3
23 Quenton Jackson IND 2.0 0.7 1.2
24 James Johnson IND 2.0 1.0 0.5
25 Johnny Furphy IND 1.7 1.4 0.4
26 Enrique Freeman IND 1.1 0.6 0.3
27 RayJ Dennis IND 1.1 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.