NBA games

MIL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
125–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL35333027125
DET36293222119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DET
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 32 11 15
Bobby Portis 33 17 10 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 31 16 4 7
Brook Lopez S 25 15 7 1
Kyle Kuzma S 23 10 1 1
Taurean Prince S 25 10 2 0
Gary Trent Jr. 24 9 1 1
AJ Green 24 9 6 0
Ryan Rollins S 17 7 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 36 6 12
Malik Beasley 27 21 0 0
Tobias Harris S 30 17 4 3
Dennis Schroder 28 12 3 8
Jalen Duren S 39 11 16 5
Ausar Thompson S 27 11 7 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 26 6 0 0
Simone Fontecchio 5 3 1 0
Paul Reed 9 2 2 0
Ronald Holland II 13 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 9-foot two point shot (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
11%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
85%
Jumper
6%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.0 11.5 8.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 29.6 6.3 8.3
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.3 4.7 3.0
4 Jalen Duren DET 16.8 10.7 3.5
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.7 5.0 4.8
6 Brook Lopez MIL 16.4 5.3 2.6
7 Bobby Portis MIL 16.2 9.8 2.7
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 15.2 2.9 2.2
9 Malik Beasley DET 15.1 2.9 2.0
10 Tobias Harris DET 13.9 5.8 2.5
11 Ryan Rollins MIL 13.0 3.4 3.9
12 Dennis Schroder DET 13.0 3.3 5.6
13 Ausar Thompson DET 12.7 6.4 2.7
14 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.4 2.8 1.6
15 Taurean Prince MIL 9.4 3.2 1.9
16 Ronald Holland II DET 8.8 3.7 1.6
17 AJ Green MIL 7.9 3.0 1.8
18 Marcus Sasser DET 7.3 1.5 1.8
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.8 2.1 1.3
20 Simone Fontecchio DET 4.6 2.1 0.9
21 Chris Livingston MIL 3.2 2.0 0.5
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.1 1.9 0.6
23 Paul Reed DET 3.1 2.7 0.7
24 Tolu Smith DET 2.9 2.2 0.7
25 Jamaree Bouyea MIL 2.8 1.4 0.7
26 Stanley Umude MIL 2.7 1.7 0.5
27 Lindy Waters III DET 2.7 1.0 0.7
28 Daniss Jenkins DET 2.7 1.1 0.7
29 Bobi Klintman DET 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.