NBA games

MIN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
141–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN37305222141
MEM31412528125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MEM
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 44 5 3
Julius Randle S 35 31 10 5
Naz Reid 24 14 6 1
Rudy Gobert S 36 13 8 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 10 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 10 5 1
Donte DiVincenzo 21 9 0 4
Mike Conley S 27 8 2 9
Leonard Miller 1 2 0 0
Josh Minott 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 36 36 1 6
Desmond Bane S 39 28 6 9
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 23 1 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 32 16 3 4
Zach Edey S 30 7 9 0
Vince Williams Jr. S 18 5 3 1
Santi Aldama 30 5 4 5
John Konchar 7 3 2 0
GG Jackson 1 2 1 0
Lamar Stevens 4 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
16%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
7 Zach Edey MEM
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 29.6 4.7 7.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 5.0 5.2
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.4 6.4 5.2
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.8 5.6 2.1
5 Desmond Bane MEM 19.4 4.5 5.0
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.7 3.9 4.9
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.6 11.8 1.9
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.8 5.1 3.0
9 Naz Reid MIN 12.6 4.9 2.9
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.9 3.6 3.3
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.2 4.0 3.3
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 4.7 1.8
13 Mike Conley MIN 10.2 2.8 4.4
14 Zach Edey MEM 9.9 9.2 1.7
15 Luke Kennard MEM 6.5 2.4 2.3
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.0 2.5 1.8
17 GG Jackson MEM 5.6 2.9 1.1
18 Jay Huff MEM 4.4 1.7 0.6
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.3 1.8 0.8
20 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.8 2.1 0.7
21 Cam Spencer MEM 3.3 1.1 1.0
22 Luka Garza MIN 3.2 0.8 0.5
23 John Konchar MEM 3.1 2.4 0.8
24 Marvin Bagley III MEM 2.8 1.7 0.5
25 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.7 0.9 0.8
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 0.9 0.5
27 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.9 0.8 0.5
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.8 0.8 1.1
29 Rob Dillingham MIN 1.6 0.6 0.5
30 Leonard Miller MIN 1.5 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.