NBA games

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE23332630112
IND28242933114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home IND
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome S 26 24 2 6
De'Andre Hunter S 32 23 11 2
Craig Porter Jr. 28 16 3 3
Sam Merrill S 29 15 3 4
Isaac Okoro 31 13 2 2
Dean Wade S 29 8 4 4
Tristan Thompson 20 7 12 0
Jarrett Allen S 16 3 10 1
Javonte Green 22 3 2 2
Jaylon Tyson 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 23 8 10
Aaron Nesmith S 30 22 6 1
Jarace Walker 15 15 3 0
Myles Turner S 31 13 7 1
Bennedict Mathurin 24 13 3 1
Pascal Siakam S 33 10 8 2
Obi Toppin 19 10 4 2
T.J. McConnell 16 6 3 4
Andrew Nembhard S 28 2 1 7
Thomas Bryant 8 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 29-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
20%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
17%
3 Myles Turner IND
13%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
13%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
12%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
11%
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE
0%
9 Ty Jerome CLE
0%
10 Obi Toppin IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.9 4.0 10.7
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.0 5.6 2.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 17.3 6.1 3.6
4 Myles Turner IND 17.1 7.6 1.7
5 Ty Jerome CLE 15.9 2.3 3.5
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.5 8.3 2.0
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.1 3.8 1.7
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.0 4.3 1.3
9 Obi Toppin IND 11.8 3.9 1.9
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.9 4.8 4.5
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 3.6 4.4
12 Sam Merrill CLE 7.2 3.4 1.7
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.8 2.9 1.0
14 Jarace Walker IND 6.5 3.2 1.7
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 2.7 1.0
16 Chuma Okeke CLE 5.9 3.9 1.3
17 Thomas Bryant IND 5.3 3.0 0.6
18 Emoni Bates CLE 3.9 1.0 0.7
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.6 1.7 0.2
20 Tony Bradley IND 3.5 2.1 0.5
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.4 1.3 0.8
22 Javonte Green CLE 2.8 1.9 0.6
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.5 1.0 0.6
24 Luke Travers CLE 2.5 1.5 0.6
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.8 0.5
26 Enrique Freeman IND 1.6 1.0 0.3
27 RayJ Dennis IND 1.6 1.0 0.6
28 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.5 1.5 0.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.