NBA games

NY @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
106–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35272321106
DET29272930115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DET
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 25 10 5
Precious Achiuwa S 40 18 10 3
Mikal Bridges S 33 17 2 7
Jalen Brunson S 29 15 2 5
Miles McBride S 39 12 2 6
Landry Shamet 15 9 0 2
Cameron Payne 15 7 2 2
P.J. Tucker 27 3 6 0
Delon Wright 13 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 36 2 8
Jalen Duren S 26 18 13 2
Tobias Harris S 28 17 2 2
Ronald Holland II 22 13 5 0
Malik Beasley 27 10 1 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 27 10 4 3
Dennis Schroder 27 8 2 1
Ausar Thompson S 21 3 4 1
Isaiah Stewart 22 0 1 1
Simone Fontecchio 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes dunk (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Dennis Schroder DET
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
10 Delon Wright NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
79%
Jumper
11%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.2 6.2 7.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.2 3.8 7.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.1 11.8 3.4
4 Mikal Bridges NY 21.7 3.9 4.8
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.2 10.2 3.3
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.1 2.5 1.7
7 Malik Beasley DET 13.7 2.7 1.9
8 Ausar Thompson DET 13.5 6.2 2.6
9 Tobias Harris DET 12.7 5.9 1.9
10 Dennis Schroder DET 12.4 3.0 5.2
11 Miles McBride NY 10.5 3.2 3.7
12 Landry Shamet NY 8.5 2.3 1.1
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.0 5.8 1.6
14 Ronald Holland II DET 8.0 3.0 1.7
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.4 1.4 1.8
16 Cameron Payne NY 7.0 2.3 3.4
17 Delon Wright NY 5.5 2.0 1.8
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.6 3.6 0.6
19 Simone Fontecchio DET 4.0 1.7 0.7
20 Tyler Kolek NY 3.1 1.1 3.8
21 Paul Reed DET 2.8 2.5 0.6
22 MarJon Beauchamp NY 2.6 1.2 0.5
23 Lindy Waters III DET 2.5 0.7 0.6
24 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.9 0.7 0.3
25 Anton Watson NY 1.5 0.9 0.4
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.4 0.5 0.3
27 Bobi Klintman DET 1.0 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.